FRANKFURT –– German managers have expressed more confidence again this month despite the completion of a trade deal between the EU and US that has raised concerns among business leaders in the trading bloc.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Monday that its latest survey of domestic companies showed an improvement in the headline business climate index for the sixth straight month. The August measure rose four-tenths to 89.0 points, beating the market estimate of 88.8.
The headline rate has risen every month this year except for February, when it drifted sideways.
August’s rise came thanks to gains in the index’s expectations component for the coming six months, which climbed to 91.6 points versus the forecast of 90.5 and July’s upwardly revised reading of 90.8.
The current conditions measure of the index dropped to 86.4 points from 86.5 last month, missing the estimate of 86.7.
“The German economy’s recovery remains weak,” Ifo said.
While the overall index improved, Ifo said the business climate worsened for each of the four sectors covered by the survey: manufacturing, services, construction, and trade. The thinktank could not be reached immediately for comment on this discrepancy.
Washington and Brussels agreed last month to US import tariffs of 15% on EU goods, half of the rate President Donald Trump had threatened to implement on 1 August. The two nations then formalised more of the deal last week, specifically listing cars and pharmaceuticals under the 15% rate, eliminating some of the worries in Europe.
However, the tariffs are more than European’s were paying, sparking criticism from business leaders. Additionally, many European logistics and postal firms have announced plans to stop services to the US over shifting trade regulations. Some of this is rooted in the end of the “de minimis” exemption for shipments under USD 800 to the US, which is set to expire Friday.
Tough going
Europe’s largest economy is still looking for support, which it needs after the German statistics office lowered its value for the second-quarter GDP contraction to 0.3% from 0.1%, its initial estimate.
German investor confidence stuttered in August, dropping for the first time in four months, with the ZEW thinktank saying financial market experts were disappointed in the trade deal.
This month’s preliminary purchasing manager indices from Germany offered mixed views in the situation, according to S&P Global. Its composite reading for Europe’s largest economy improved to a five-month high of 50.9 points from 50.6 in July, pushing if further beyond the 50-point line separating growth territory above from contraction below. The manufacturing component climbed to a better-than-expected 49.9, a 38-month high, but the services reading slipped to 50.1, a two-month low.
Thomas Gitzel, chief economist VP Bank, noted that the PMIs have been pointing to a moderate recovery. “The ECB's interest rate cuts and the billions in infrastructure spending promised by the German government are likely to be the main drivers. At the same time, higher US tariffs are dampening growth. The snail-paced upward movement of the Ifo Business Climate Index can thus be directly applied to the German economy.”
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- Headline rate has yet to dip this year
- German PMIs send mixed signals
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
25 August 2025 | 08:50 GMT
FRANKFURT –– German managers have expressed more confidence again this month despite the completion of a trade deal between the EU and US that has raised concerns among business leaders in the trading bloc.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Monday that its latest survey of domestic companies showed an improvement in the headline business climate index for the sixth straight month. The August measure rose four-tenths to 89.0 points, beating the market estimate of 88.8.
The headline rate has risen every month this year except for February, when it drifted sideways.
August’s rise came thanks to gains in the index’s expectations component for the coming six months, which climbed to 91.6 points versus the forecast of 90.5 and July’s upwardly revised reading of 90.8.
The current conditions measure of the index dropped to 86.4 points from 86.5 last month, missing the estimate of 86.7.
“The German economy’s recovery remains weak,” Ifo said.
While the overall index improved, Ifo said the business climate worsened for each of the four sectors covered by the survey: manufacturing, services, construction, and trade. The thinktank could not be reached immediately for comment on this discrepancy.
Washington and Brussels agreed last month to US import tariffs of 15% on EU goods, half of the rate President Donald Trump had threatened to implement on 1 August. The two nations then formalised more of the deal last week, specifically listing cars and pharmaceuticals under the 15% rate, eliminating some of the worries in Europe.
However, the tariffs are more than European’s were paying, sparking criticism from business leaders. Additionally, many European logistics and postal firms have announced plans to stop services to the US over shifting trade regulations. Some of this is rooted in the end of the “de minimis” exemption for shipments under USD 800 to the US, which is set to expire Friday.
Tough going
Europe’s largest economy is still looking for support, which it needs after the German statistics office lowered its value for the second-quarter GDP contraction to 0.3% from 0.1%, its initial estimate.
German investor confidence stuttered in August, dropping for the first time in four months, with the ZEW thinktank saying financial market experts were disappointed in the trade deal.
This month’s preliminary purchasing manager indices from Germany offered mixed views in the situation, according to S&P Global. Its composite reading for Europe’s largest economy improved to a five-month high of 50.9 points from 50.6 in July, pushing if further beyond the 50-point line separating growth territory above from contraction below. The manufacturing component climbed to a better-than-expected 49.9, a 38-month high, but the services reading slipped to 50.1, a two-month low.
Thomas Gitzel, chief economist VP Bank, noted that the PMIs have been pointing to a moderate recovery. “The ECB's interest rate cuts and the billions in infrastructure spending promised by the German government are likely to be the main drivers. At the same time, higher US tariffs are dampening growth. The snail-paced upward movement of the Ifo Business Climate Index can thus be directly applied to the German economy.”
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