Fed Expected To Remain On Hold, Avoiding Midterms Maelstrom
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- October pause favoured, December hike in play
- Sticky inflation pressures policymakers
- Weak payrolls bolster the doves
- Warsh's messaging in focus
- Decision set for 14:00 EST/ 18:00 GMT
- Press conference scheduled for 14:30 EST/ 18:30 GMT
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
17:00 GMT | 27 October 2026
Persistent inflation and resilient economic activity might ordinarily have persuaded US Federal Reserve policymakers to raise interest rates for a second consecutive meeting. However, signs of weakness in the labour market, alongside the imminent midterm elections, appear to have tipped the balance towards caution.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday.
Interest rate futures currently imply less than a 10% probability of an October hike, although those odds rise to roughly 80% ahead of the year's final meeting in December.
JPMorgan's Michael Feroli expects two hawkish dissents from Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan, with a possibility that Neel Kashkari could also vote against holding rates steady. “We think that the post-meeting statement will say that policy will deliver a timely return to price stability.”
Feroli added that if the Fed holds as expected, Chair Kevin Warsh will need to explain why the committee raised rates following a two-tenths core PCE reading in September but is now standing pat despite an expected three-tenths increase.
The proximity of next week's US midterm elections has added another layer of complexity to the Fed's decision, with Wednesday's announcement coming just six days before Americans head to the polls.
Historically, the central bank has shown a reluctance to adjust monetary policy immediately ahead of elections unless economic circumstances demand action, reflecting concerns that such moves could be interpreted as politically motivated.
Economic data since the central bank's September meeting have painted a mixed picture, exhibiting what many analysts would describe as stagflationary tendencies.
Headline inflation accelerated to 3.7% y/y in September from 3.4%, with prices rising 0.6% on the month. Much of the increase reflected higher energy costs, with gasoline prices jumping 9.1% m/m and accounting for more than half of the monthly advance.
More concerning for policymakers, underlying price pressures have remained persistent. Core CPI increased 2.6% y/y, exceeding expectations of 2.5% and August's 2.4% reading.
However, September's employment report provided the clearest argument for caution.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000, following a downwardly revised 133,000 increase in August. July's reading was revised into negative territory at -10,000, with revisions to the previous two months subtracting a combined 60,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, while average hourly earnings increased just 0.1% m/m, taking annual wage growth to 3.0%.
BMO's Vail Hartman said the bank had been operating on the assumption that September's payrolls report was unlikely to be a game-changer for the economic outlook.
“After all, employment data has been playing a secondary role to inflation in shaping monetary policy, and we suspect that NFP will simply confirm the resilience of labour market conditions in the face of sticky inflation and elevated borrowing costs.”
With Wednesday's decision seemingly a foregone conclusion, attention will turn to Warsh's explanation for holding rates steady despite persistent inflationary pressures.
“The press conference could prove challenging if Chair Warsh insists on providing little colour on the FOMC's plan to deliver on that vow,” JPMorgan's Feroli said.
“Ideally, he will reiterate the message from his deputies that the Committee is biased to hike but wants to take a little more time to observe the impact of the last hike on the economy.”
At the start of his tenure, Warsh made clear that he would not offer explicit forward guidance. However, that approach contrasts with the more frequent policy signals from several of his fellow policymakers.
Citi expects Warsh to reiterate that the committee will continue tightening monetary policy until inflation is declining at a sufficiently rapid pace.
He may also repeat his earlier assertion that policymakers have removed only a "dose" of accommodation, suggesting further rate increases remain on the table.
However, Citi warned that Warsh's emphasis on taking signals from financial markets could be interpreted as dovish, particularly given the recent moderation in market expectations for further tightening.
“In the past he has said that he seeks to take signals from markets which could sound dovish if repeated as interest rates are now reflecting less hawkish policy expectations.”