Eurozone Q3 Growth Set To Weaken As War Grinds On

- Quarterly GDP growth forecast at 0.2% (prev 0.6%)

- High Q2 number skewed by Irish result – analysts

- Less expansion likely from most of Big Four

- Data due Friday at 10:00 GMT / 11 CET

By Eric Culp, European Editor

LiveSquawk News

@eculp.bsky.social

@EricCulpLS

29 October 2026 | 13:00 GMT

Euro area economic growth likely decelerated significantly last quarter compared with the previous three months as the Iran war continued to rattle global energy markets and supply chains.

An economists’ poll said quarterly GDP growth in the Eurozone rose 0.2% last quarter after increasing 0.6% in the prior period. Analysts noted that a 10.2% jump in Irish activity data pushed the overall Eurozone number higher. Also due with the preliminary data report Thursday is the year-on-year rate, with a Q3 increase of 1.1% expected following 1.2% in July-September.

HSBC said, “We expect growth to remain resilient at around 0.2% q/q, supported by recovering manufacturing and exports, fiscal stimulus and strong tech investment. However, higher energy prices and inflation are squeezing real incomes, while tighter financial conditions and softer credit growth should constrain domestic demand.”

Purchasing managers’ indices during the third quarter suggested that economic activity in the single currency area was on the mend. In July, the composite indicator improved to an eight-month high of 52.0 points and thus returned to growth territory above the 50 mark, which delineates expansion from contraction below that level. The composite measure was then unchanged in August on better manufacturing data but a decline in services, and the indicator hit 53.1 in September, its best in 41 months as the manufacturing reading rose to its highest point in 52 months.

Eurozone Big Four outlook

The market consensus for growth in Germany last quarter pointed to a 0.1% q/q improvement following the surprisingly strong 0.3% result in the previous period, with the data due Friday at 09:00 GMT, just an hour before the release of the Eurozone number.

French GDP growth, scheduled for release Friday at 06:30 GMT, is forecast to have improved to 0.1% from Q2’s flat reading. Italian GDP, due at 09:00 GMT Friday, is expected to show a rise of 0.1% following the 0.2% mark set in Q2. Spain is set to report Friday at 08:00 GMT and likely to continue to outpace the rest of the four major economies with 0.6% growth in Q3 after 0.7% in Q2.

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session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled; session_info.platform = data.platform; session_info.player_version = data.player_version; session_info.stream = data.stream; session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol; session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target; session_info.session_email = data.session_email; session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; session_info.application_name = data.application_name; session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; } function start_log() { var session_start_date = new Date(); session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime(); var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec']; var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear(); var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log'; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.username = session_info.session_email; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.webrtc_protocol = ''; data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0); data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream; data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function update_session_info(data) { var data_array = {}; var msg_string = ''; var current_date = new Date(); var current_time = current_date.getTime(); session_info.protocol = data.protocol; session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2); session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time; session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time; session_info.jitter = data.jitter; session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss; session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency; session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score; session_info.restarts = data.restarts; if (socket_emits == 0) { data_array = {}; 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