The euro area economy likely expanded at the same rate last quarter as in the final three months of 2025, and inflation this month is set for a second straight increase due to the Iran war.
The data is scheduled for release just hours before the European Central Bank is set to announce its latest rate decision, with analysts predicting a rate hold.
An economists’ poll said quarterly GDP growth in the Eurozone rose 0.2% last quarter after increasing at that rate in the previous period. Also due with the preliminary data report Thursday is the year-on-year rate, with a Q1 rise of 0.9% expected following 1.2% in the previous three months.
PMIs during the first quarter suggested that economic activity in the euro area was ticking along quite well. Even the results from March, the first month of the war, pointed to growth. The manufacturing measure shot to a 45-month high of 51.6 points, with economists noting that companies had ramped up production to meet demands for stock building amid worries of rising costs for raw materials and a breakdown of supply chains due to the war. At the same time, the March services index fell to a 10-month low, which pulled down the overall composite reading to 50.2 points, its worst mark in nine months but still in the expansion zone above 50.
Economists have cut their global growth expectations due to the war, with the conflict already hitting consumers’ pocketbooks. Annual headline inflation in the currency area this month surged more than half a percentage point in March to 2.6% and is forecast to continue higher to 2.9% this month, with the core rate expected to match the previous result of 2.3%
Nomura said the effects of the conflict in and around the Persian Gulf would have more impact on price growth than the market expects, predicting headline inflation of 3.0% and a one-tenth rise in the core rate to 2.4%. “In our view, we should begin to see a more meaningful contribution to HICP inflation in April relative to March from the indirect effects of the Iran war, ie non-energy components such as food, airfares, and package holidays.”
Eurozone Big Four outlook
The market consensus for growth in Germany last quarter pointed to a 0.2% q/q improvement following the surprisingly strong 0.3% result in the previous period, with the data due Thursday at 08:00 GMT, just an hour before the release of the Eurozone number. This month’s German EU harmonised annual headline inflation, set for release Wednesday at 12:00 GMT, is forecast at 3.1% y/y following 2.8% in March.
French GDP growth, due Thursday at 05:30 GMT, is forecast to have held at 0.2%, with inflation (06:45 GMT) set to increase to 2.3% from 2.0% in March.
Italian GDP, due at 08:00 GMT Thursday, is expected to show a rise of 0.1% following the 0.3% mark set in Q4. Consumer price growth (09:00 GMT) is forecast at 2.5% compared with 1.6% in March.
Spain is set to report GDP on Thursday at 07:00 GMT, and the country is likely to continue to outpace the rest of the four major economies with 0.5% growth in Q1 after 0.8% in Q4. On Wednesday, Madrid announced a preliminary April inflation rate of 3.5%, which was in-line with forecasts and up a tenth from March.
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- Quarterly GDP growth forecast at 0.2% (prev 0.2%)
- Headline inflation expected at 2.9% y/y (prev 2.6%)
- War expected to impact both measures
- Data due Thursday at 09:00 GMT / 11 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
29 April 2026 | 08:05 GMT
The euro area economy likely expanded at the same rate last quarter as in the final three months of 2025, and inflation this month is set for a second straight increase due to the Iran war.
The data is scheduled for release just hours before the European Central Bank is set to announce its latest rate decision, with analysts predicting a rate hold.
An economists’ poll said quarterly GDP growth in the Eurozone rose 0.2% last quarter after increasing at that rate in the previous period. Also due with the preliminary data report Thursday is the year-on-year rate, with a Q1 rise of 0.9% expected following 1.2% in the previous three months.
PMIs during the first quarter suggested that economic activity in the euro area was ticking along quite well. Even the results from March, the first month of the war, pointed to growth. The manufacturing measure shot to a 45-month high of 51.6 points, with economists noting that companies had ramped up production to meet demands for stock building amid worries of rising costs for raw materials and a breakdown of supply chains due to the war. At the same time, the March services index fell to a 10-month low, which pulled down the overall composite reading to 50.2 points, its worst mark in nine months but still in the expansion zone above 50.
Economists have cut their global growth expectations due to the war, with the conflict already hitting consumers’ pocketbooks. Annual headline inflation in the currency area this month surged more than half a percentage point in March to 2.6% and is forecast to continue higher to 2.9% this month, with the core rate expected to match the previous result of 2.3%
Nomura said the effects of the conflict in and around the Persian Gulf would have more impact on price growth than the market expects, predicting headline inflation of 3.0% and a one-tenth rise in the core rate to 2.4%. “In our view, we should begin to see a more meaningful contribution to HICP inflation in April relative to March from the indirect effects of the Iran war, ie non-energy components such as food, airfares, and package holidays.”
Eurozone Big Four outlook
The market consensus for growth in Germany last quarter pointed to a 0.2% q/q improvement following the surprisingly strong 0.3% result in the previous period, with the data due Thursday at 08:00 GMT, just an hour before the release of the Eurozone number. This month’s German EU harmonised annual headline inflation, set for release Wednesday at 12:00 GMT, is forecast at 3.1% y/y following 2.8% in March.
French GDP growth, due Thursday at 05:30 GMT, is forecast to have held at 0.2%, with inflation (06:45 GMT) set to increase to 2.3% from 2.0% in March.
Italian GDP, due at 08:00 GMT Thursday, is expected to show a rise of 0.1% following the 0.3% mark set in Q4. Consumer price growth (09:00 GMT) is forecast at 2.5% compared with 1.6% in March.
Spain is set to report GDP on Thursday at 07:00 GMT, and the country is likely to continue to outpace the rest of the four major economies with 0.5% growth in Q1 after 0.8% in Q4. On Wednesday, Madrid announced a preliminary April inflation rate of 3.5%, which was in-line with forecasts and up a tenth from March.
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