Eurozone October Inflation Expected To Hit 4%
It's starting to feel like the sky is the limit for fuel prices. (Photo: Culp)

- Core rate projected to hold 2.5% y/y

- Oil takes a bid after US strikes overnight

- ECB rate hike anticipated in December

- Data due Wednesday at 10:00 GMT / 11:00 CEST

By Eric Culp, European Editor

LiveSquawk News

@eculp.bsky.social

@EricCulpLS

3 October 2026 | 10:12 GMT

Headline consumer price growth in the Eurozone last month likely grew to its highest mark since September 2023, according to economists’ expectations for the first data on inflation to be released since the European Central Bank’s rate hold last week.

An economists’ poll predicted that annual Eurozone headline inflation in October grew to 4.0% from 3.8% in Sept. This would push it to more than double the ECB’s target of 2.0% over the medium term.

October’s less-volatile core rate was set to hold a 2.5%.

Noting that most Eurozone countries have already reported (below), Société Generale said energy inflation was the main driver for rising headline prices. “However, unlike in recent months, it is electricity and gas rather than fuel to blame,” with France and Germany both offering discounts at petrol station pumps via fuel tax reductions.

Oil prices continued to yo-yo at high levels, extending the trend from last month, when Brent crude pushed above USD 116/bbl in the final fortnight of October. It was trading just over USD 106/bbl in Europe on Tuesday after US attacks on Iran overnight.

A rise in inflation to 4% all but seals a euro area rate hike next month. Following last week’s decision to hold, ECB President Christine Lagarde said “the direction of travel is quite clear for all of us”, a statement widely interpreted to mean the bank will raise rates in December, with a 25-basis point increase the predominant expectation. Traders predicted the likelihood of such a move at nearly 85%.

Eurozone Big Four diverge

Initial October numbers released Friday from the major Eurozone economies pointed in different directions. Germany said its EU-harmonised inflation rate eased to 2.8% y/y, lower than the 3.0% expected and a half-point drop from 3.3% in September. France reported earlier that its annual rate increased to 3.8% versus the 3.6% market estimate and 3.4% in the previous period. Italian price growth surged to 5.6%, over a percentage point higher than in September and its worst since July 2023. Spain said headline inflation eased a tenth of a point to 4.9%, which was in-line with market expectations.

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session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled; session_info.platform = data.platform; session_info.player_version = data.player_version; session_info.stream = data.stream; session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol; session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target; session_info.session_email = data.session_email; session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; session_info.application_name = data.application_name; session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; } function start_log() { var session_start_date = new Date(); session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime(); var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec']; var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear(); var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log'; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.username = session_info.session_email; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.webrtc_protocol = ''; data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0); data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream; data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function update_session_info(data) { var data_array = {}; var msg_string = ''; var current_date = new Date(); var current_time = current_date.getTime(); session_info.protocol = data.protocol; session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2); session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time; session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time; session_info.jitter = data.jitter; session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss; session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency; session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score; session_info.restarts = data.restarts; if (socket_emits == 0) { data_array = {}; 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