Headline consumer price growth in the euro area last month bounced back to approach the European Central Bank's target, and the inflation rate is likely to increase further following US-led attacks in the Middle East.
In a preliminary report, the EU statistics office Eurostat said annual Eurozone inflation last month rose to 1.9%, outpacing the market estimate of 1.7%, which was the rate reported for January. This brought the measure closer to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2.0%.
The less-volatile euro area core rate rose to 2.4% y/y versus the expected repeat of January’s reading of 2.2%, a four-year low.
Measured at a monthly rate, consumer prices in February jumped 0.7% to exceed the forecast of 0.5% after the measure fell 0.6% at the beginning of the year.
EUR/USD threatened to move below 1.16 early Tuesday in Europe and flirted with that level again following the report before dropping under as the session continued.
The cost of war
The outlook for inflation has changed dramatically since Friday. Oil prices surged following the US and Israeli bombings of Iran, which in turn has led to attacks on multiple nations in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Brent crude was trading near 82.70, up more than USD 10 from its Friday close. WTI had jumped some USD 9 to around USD 76.35
Falling energy prices have been helping stem consumer price growth in the Eurozone – last month they dropped 3.2%. But the expanding Middle East conflict has also hit the Strait of Hormuz – a conduit for 20% of the world’s crude – where at least one oil tanker has been attacked, according to media reports.
The war has cast severe doubts on many analysts’ predictions that the ECB would hold rates at current levels for at least all of 2026. Traders say the likelihood an ECB hike this year is now 50%.
Price growth uneven in Eurozone Big Four
Initial February numbers from Europe’s four largest economies pointed mostly higher. Germany said Friday afternoon that its EU-harmonised annual inflation rate rose unexpectedly, slipping a tenth to 2.0.
But earlier that day, the latest measures from France and Spain both surprised to the upside, with the former rising to 1.1% from 0.4%, and the latter climbing to 2.5% from 2.4% in January.
Consumer price growth in Italy, released concurrently with Tuesday's euro area data, jumped to 1.6%, much more than the forecast of 1.1% and January’s 1.0%.
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var socket;
var assigned_server = 3001;
var distributor_server = 3010;
var publisher_channel = '';
var broadcaster_channel = '';
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case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break;
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case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break;
case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break;
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data_array.logs = data.logs;
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function request_message_search(data) {
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function request_more_messages(data) {
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function check_channel_status(data) {
var data_array = {};
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function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
}
function join_publisher_channel(data) {
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data_array.type = 'join_publisher_channel';
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data_array.subscriber_group = data.subscriber_group;
data_array.display_name = data.display_name;
data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
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var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) {
socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
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function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
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function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel;
remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
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var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
switch(data.type) {
case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break;
}
};
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function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
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function server_assignment_response(data) {
assigned_server = data.selected_server;
socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
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function request_server_assignment() {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment';
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socket.onopen = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' });
connected_to_assigned = true;
if (playing) {
postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
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socket.onmessage = function(event) {
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var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ }
switch(data.type) {
case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break;
case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
case 'add_report':
case 'add_ref_doc':
case 'calendar_change':
case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
case 'AppStart':
case 'AppStop':
case 'BroadcasterStarted':
case 'BroadcasterStopped':
case 'added_cme_report':
case 'updated_cme_report':
case 'added_cme_commentary':
case 'updated_cme_commentary':
case 'server_assignment_response':
case 'initial_messages':
case 'message_categories':
case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
break;
case 'output':
case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
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};
socket.onerror = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
console.log(event);
postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
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socket.onclose = function(event) {
console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason);
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reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor;
connected_to_assigned = false;
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function close_socket() {
clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout);
socket_close_timeout = null;
socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
}
function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
}
function join_player_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_player_channel';
data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status;
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data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
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if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
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function start_log_response(data) {
session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id;
session_info_interval();
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function application_refresh_start(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); }
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function application_refresh_stop(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); }
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function set_static_session_info(data) {
session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename;
session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
}
function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename;
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data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent;
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data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled;
data_array.platform = session_info.platform;
data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- Core rate increases unexpectedly
- EUR/USD flirts with drop below 1.16
- Traders see 50% chance of rate hike in ‘26
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
In a preliminary report, the EU statistics office Eurostat said annual Eurozone inflation last month rose to 1.9%, outpacing the market estimate of 1.7%, which was the rate reported for January. This brought the measure closer to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2.0%.
The less-volatile euro area core rate rose to 2.4% y/y versus the expected repeat of January’s reading of 2.2%, a four-year low.
Measured at a monthly rate, consumer prices in February jumped 0.7% to exceed the forecast of 0.5% after the measure fell 0.6% at the beginning of the year.
EUR/USD threatened to move below 1.16 early Tuesday in Europe and flirted with that level again following the report before dropping under as the session continued.
The cost of war
The outlook for inflation has changed dramatically since Friday. Oil prices surged following the US and Israeli bombings of Iran, which in turn has led to attacks on multiple nations in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Brent crude was trading near 82.70, up more than USD 10 from its Friday close. WTI had jumped some USD 9 to around USD 76.35
Falling energy prices have been helping stem consumer price growth in the Eurozone – last month they dropped 3.2%. But the expanding Middle East conflict has also hit the Strait of Hormuz – a conduit for 20% of the world’s crude – where at least one oil tanker has been attacked, according to media reports.
The war has cast severe doubts on many analysts’ predictions that the ECB would hold rates at current levels for at least all of 2026. Traders say the likelihood an ECB hike this year is now 50%.
Price growth uneven in Eurozone Big Four
Initial February numbers from Europe’s four largest economies pointed mostly higher. Germany said Friday afternoon that its EU-harmonised annual inflation rate rose unexpectedly, slipping a tenth to 2.0.
But earlier that day, the latest measures from France and Spain both surprised to the upside, with the former rising to 1.1% from 0.4%, and the latter climbing to 2.5% from 2.4% in January.
Consumer price growth in Italy, released concurrently with Tuesday's euro area data, jumped to 1.6%, much more than the forecast of 1.1% and January’s 1.0%.
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