Headline inflation in the Eurozone fell sharply in March likely bringing some welcome relief for households but a rise in the core rate offers little succour for European Central Bank policymakers.
Preliminary data from the EU statistics office Eurostat showed a sharp drop in Eurozone annual inflation last month to 6.9% versus the market estimate of 7.1% and the February reading of 8.5%.
While there was a softening in the headline rate. The core reading excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco rose a tenth to 5.7%, in line with the consensus. Food inflation grew to 15.4%, a new record high.
Experts blame March’s top line fall on base effects. Dr. Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP bank said, “A year ago, there was a significant increase in energy prices as a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine. The high price quotations are now the new basis for comparison.”
Germany, the region’s biggest economy, said annual EU-harmonised consumer price growth dropped to 7.8% last month from 9.3% in February. In France – the second-largest economy --- its rate slid to 5.6% from 6.3% previously. Both Italy and Spain also saw softer readings for the month of March.
Experts worry that high prices continue to weigh on consumers’ real income and this in turn will drag on spending. However, the stubborn core prices are proving problematic and will likely keep hawks of the view that the central bank’s inflation-fighting job is far from complete.
ECB to press ahead
At its March meeting, the ECB updated its macroeconomic projections. The bank now expects core inflation to average 4.6% in 2023, versus expectations of 4.2% in its December macroeconomic projections.
Nomura’s Andrzej Szczepaniak said, “The ECB made clear it would raise rates further should its baseline scenario for core inflation materialise and so long as financial market concerns regarding adverse banking sector developments subside.
“In our view, core inflation remains too strong, and hence we still expect the ECB to raise rates by 50bp at its May meeting, albeit we acknowledge greater downside risks. Key data ahead will be the April print of inflation (released 2 May), as well as the ECB Bank Lending Survey (also released 2 May), which will play a pivotal role in determining the ECB’s next step.”
/*jshint esversion: 6 */
var socket;
var assigned_server = 3001;
var distributor_server = 3010;
var publisher_channel = '';
var broadcaster_channel = '';
var remote_ip = '';
var session_info = {};
var logging_interval;
var logging_interval_time = 120000;
var socket_emits = 0;
var session_start_time;
var reconnectionDelayGrowFactor = 1.2;
var reconnection_delay = 1000;
var playing = false;
var connected_to_assigned = false;
var socket_close_timeout;
var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay = 1500;
var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null;
self.onmessage = function (msg) {
switch(msg.data.action) {
case 'Reactivate': reactivate(); break;
case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break;
case 'SessionStaticInfo': session_static_info(msg); break;
case 'SessionInfo': update_session_info(msg.data); break;
case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break;
case 'RestartLogging': postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionStaticInfo' }); break;
case 'JoinPublisherChannel': join_publisher_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break;
case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break;
case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break;
case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break;
}
};
function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear() {
clearTimeout(player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout);
player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null;
}
function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start() {
player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = setTimeout(function() { send_play_disconnect_annoucement(); }, player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay );
}
function send_play_disconnect_annoucement() {
postMessage({action: "PlayDisconnectAnnoucement"});
}
function reactivate() {
playing = false;
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function player_log_response(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'PlayerLogResponse';
data_array.respond_to_socket_final = data.respond_to_socket_final;
data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket;
data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id;
data_array.logs = data.logs;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function request_message_search(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_message_search';
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.search_term = data.search_term;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function request_more_messages(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_more_messages';
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function check_channel_status(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'check_channel_status';
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1 && connected_to_assigned) { socket.send(msg_string); }
else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); }
}
function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
}
function join_publisher_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_publisher_channel';
if (typeof data.api_key !== 'undefined') { data_array.api_key = data.api_key; }
else {
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.subscriber_group = data.subscriber_group;
data_array.display_name = data.display_name;
data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
}
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) {
socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
}
function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
}
function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel;
remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
var msg_string = event.data.toString();
var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
switch(data.type) {
case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break;
}
};
}
function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
}
function server_assignment_response(data) {
assigned_server = data.selected_server;
socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function request_server_assignment() {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment';
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function connect_to_assigned_server() {
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' });
connected_to_assigned = true;
if (playing) {
postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
}
};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
var msg_string = event.data.toString();
var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ }
switch(data.type) {
case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break;
case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
case 'add_report':
case 'add_ref_doc':
case 'calendar_change':
case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
case 'AppStart':
case 'AppStop':
case 'BroadcasterStarted':
case 'BroadcasterStopped':
case 'added_cme_report':
case 'updated_cme_report':
case 'added_cme_commentary':
case 'updated_cme_commentary':
case 'server_assignment_response':
case 'initial_messages':
case 'message_categories':
case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
break;
case 'output':
case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
}
};
socket.onerror = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
console.log(event);
postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
};
socket.onclose = function(event) {
console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason);
socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay);
reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor;
connected_to_assigned = false;
};
}
function close_socket() {
clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout);
socket_close_timeout = null;
socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
}
function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
}
function join_player_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_player_channel';
data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
}
function start_log_response(data) {
session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id;
session_info_interval();
}
function application_refresh_start(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); }
}
function application_refresh_stop(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); }
}
function set_static_session_info(data) {
session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename;
session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
}
function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename;
data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name;
data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent;
data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version;
data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled;
data_array.platform = session_info.platform;
data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- Annual headline rate falls on base effects
- Core prices remain uncomfortably elevated
- Food inflation sets fresh record high
- Further ECB rate hikes expected
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
31 March 2023
Headline inflation in the Eurozone fell sharply in March likely bringing some welcome relief for households but a rise in the core rate offers little succour for European Central Bank policymakers.
Preliminary data from the EU statistics office Eurostat showed a sharp drop in Eurozone annual inflation last month to 6.9% versus the market estimate of 7.1% and the February reading of 8.5%.
While there was a softening in the headline rate. The core reading excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco rose a tenth to 5.7%, in line with the consensus. Food inflation grew to 15.4%, a new record high.
Experts blame March’s top line fall on base effects. Dr. Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP bank said, “A year ago, there was a significant increase in energy prices as a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine. The high price quotations are now the new basis for comparison.”
Germany, the region’s biggest economy, said annual EU-harmonised consumer price growth dropped to 7.8% last month from 9.3% in February. In France – the second-largest economy --- its rate slid to 5.6% from 6.3% previously. Both Italy and Spain also saw softer readings for the month of March.
Experts worry that high prices continue to weigh on consumers’ real income and this in turn will drag on spending. However, the stubborn core prices are proving problematic and will likely keep hawks of the view that the central bank’s inflation-fighting job is far from complete.
At its March meeting, the ECB updated its macroeconomic projections. The bank now expects core inflation to average 4.6% in 2023, versus expectations of 4.2% in its December macroeconomic projections.
Nomura’s Andrzej Szczepaniak said, “The ECB made clear it would raise rates further should its baseline scenario for core inflation materialise and so long as financial market concerns regarding adverse banking sector developments subside.
“In our view, core inflation remains too strong, and hence we still expect the ECB to raise rates by 50bp at its May meeting, albeit we acknowledge greater downside risks. Key data ahead will be the April print of inflation (released 2 May), as well as the ECB Bank Lending Survey (also released 2 May), which will play a pivotal role in determining the ECB’s next step.”