Leading inflation measures for the Eurozone fell again last month, but the slowdowns were less than expected, creating a situation where monetary policymakers are likely to stay the course longer to ensure price growth is on track to decline to target levels.
According to preliminary data from the EU statistics office Eurostat, last month the annual rate of consumer price growth in the single currency area fell to 2.6% versus the estimate of 2.5% and the 2.8% reported in January.
The core rate continued its downward slide, dropping for a seventh straight month with a decline to 3.1%, which compared to the market forecast of 2.9% and the 3.3% reading announced in January.
Eurozone energy prices in February fell 3.7% on the year following a 6.3% drop in the previous month, Eurostat said. The cost of unprocessed food on the year only rose at an annual rate of 2.2% after climbing 6.9% in January.
Economists adjust rate-cut expectations
While Friday’s report offered mainly good news for those hoping for lower borrowing costs from the European Central Bank, it may be too early to celebrate. “Inflationary pressures from disruptions in the Red Sea have yet to materialise, as goods inflation fell further to 1.6% y/y from 2% y/y previous,” noted Paolo Grignani, an economist at Oxford Economics. “However, services inflation remains sticky, dropping by just 0.1ppts to 3.9%.”
He noted that the ECB, which continues to claim that its monetary policy is “data-dependent”, will need to make some adjustments to its outlook next week, noting that with monthly inflation prints and global energy prices coming in below expectations, “the ECB will likely have to lower its inflation forecast further at the upcoming meeting.”
The ECB is scheduled to announce its next rate decision on Thursday.
Capital Economics has scrapped its prediction for a rate cut next month. “Most policymakers at the ECB have stuck to the view that they need more time to be convinced that inflation will fall sustainably to 2%,” economist Jack Allen-Reynolds wrote. “February’s inflation data will have strengthened that conviction. So an interest rate cut in April – as we have been forecasting – is now not going to happen.”
Annual EU harmonised inflation in Germany – Europe’s biggest economy – fell in-line with forecasts to 2.7% in February from 3.1% in the previous month, the country’s statistics office said on Thursday. Also reporting Thursday, France, the second-largest euro area economy, said inflation last month fell to 3.1%, which was short of the 3.0% expected by the market.
On Friday, Italy, the euro area’s third largest economy, said its annual EU inflation number held at 0.8% last month. The day before, consumer price growth in Spain, the fourth-largest economy, reportedly dropped sharply, falling to 2.9% from 3.5%.
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case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break;
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function reactivate() {
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function player_log_response(data) {
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data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket;
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data_array.logs = data.logs;
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function request_message_search(data) {
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data_array.search_term = data.search_term;
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function request_more_messages(data) {
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function check_channel_status(data) {
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function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
}
function join_publisher_channel(data) {
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data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
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data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
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socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
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function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
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function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
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remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
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switch(data.type) {
case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break;
}
};
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function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
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function server_assignment_response(data) {
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socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
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socket.onopen = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' });
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postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
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if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ }
switch(data.type) {
case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break;
case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
case 'add_report':
case 'add_ref_doc':
case 'calendar_change':
case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
case 'AppStart':
case 'AppStop':
case 'BroadcasterStarted':
case 'BroadcasterStopped':
case 'added_cme_report':
case 'updated_cme_report':
case 'added_cme_commentary':
case 'updated_cme_commentary':
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case 'initial_messages':
case 'message_categories':
case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
break;
case 'output':
case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
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postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
console.log(event);
postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
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console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason);
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socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
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function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
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function join_player_channel(data) {
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data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
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data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
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postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
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session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id;
session_info_interval();
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function set_static_session_info(data) {
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session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
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function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
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data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
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data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
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var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
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data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
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data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
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data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- Annual headline reading falls to 2.6%
- Core rate holds above 3%
- Price growth falls in Germany, France, Spain,
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
1 March 2024 | 10:40 GMT
Leading inflation measures for the Eurozone fell again last month, but the slowdowns were less than expected, creating a situation where monetary policymakers are likely to stay the course longer to ensure price growth is on track to decline to target levels.
According to preliminary data from the EU statistics office Eurostat, last month the annual rate of consumer price growth in the single currency area fell to 2.6% versus the estimate of 2.5% and the 2.8% reported in January.
The core rate continued its downward slide, dropping for a seventh straight month with a decline to 3.1%, which compared to the market forecast of 2.9% and the 3.3% reading announced in January.
Eurozone energy prices in February fell 3.7% on the year following a 6.3% drop in the previous month, Eurostat said. The cost of unprocessed food on the year only rose at an annual rate of 2.2% after climbing 6.9% in January.
Economists adjust rate-cut expectations
While Friday’s report offered mainly good news for those hoping for lower borrowing costs from the European Central Bank, it may be too early to celebrate. “Inflationary pressures from disruptions in the Red Sea have yet to materialise, as goods inflation fell further to 1.6% y/y from 2% y/y previous,” noted Paolo Grignani, an economist at Oxford Economics. “However, services inflation remains sticky, dropping by just 0.1ppts to 3.9%.”
He noted that the ECB, which continues to claim that its monetary policy is “data-dependent”, will need to make some adjustments to its outlook next week, noting that with monthly inflation prints and global energy prices coming in below expectations, “the ECB will likely have to lower its inflation forecast further at the upcoming meeting.”
The ECB is scheduled to announce its next rate decision on Thursday.
Capital Economics has scrapped its prediction for a rate cut next month. “Most policymakers at the ECB have stuck to the view that they need more time to be convinced that inflation will fall sustainably to 2%,” economist Jack Allen-Reynolds wrote. “February’s inflation data will have strengthened that conviction. So an interest rate cut in April – as we have been forecasting – is now not going to happen.”
Annual EU harmonised inflation in Germany – Europe’s biggest economy – fell in-line with forecasts to 2.7% in February from 3.1% in the previous month, the country’s statistics office said on Thursday. Also reporting Thursday, France, the second-largest euro area economy, said inflation last month fell to 3.1%, which was short of the 3.0% expected by the market.
On Friday, Italy, the euro area’s third largest economy, said its annual EU inflation number held at 0.8% last month. The day before, consumer price growth in Spain, the fourth-largest economy, reportedly dropped sharply, falling to 2.9% from 3.5%.