Delayed US CPI Data Set To Reflect Larger Tariff Passthrough
- CPI to show hotter headline and steady core rates - Import costs continue to lift goods inflation - Slower shelter, travel inflation to ease some pressure - Government shutdown complicating data visibility
The overdue release of September’s inflation data on Friday will give market participants and policymakers their first official view of price growth since the start of the U.S. government shutdown.
Economists polled forecast annual headline inflation rose to 3.1% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from August. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to remain steady at 3.1% y/y. Monthly, headline CPI is expected to increase 0.4%, unchanged from the prior month, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.3%.
Tariff passthrough is again expected to provide upside pressure on goods prices. After bottoming out at –1.9% y/y in August last year, goods inflation turned positive in April — the same month President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of punitive tariffs — and reached 1.5% in August.
Societe Générale’s Klaus Baader said tariffs would likely remain a meaningful inflation driver in the months ahead. “The evidence suggests that tariffs are feeding through to consumer prices at a gradual, rather than abrupt, rate. In our view, broadly speaking, we expect something like three-quarters of tariff-driven import cost increases to eventually end up in consumer prices.”
Earlier this year, some analysts argued that rising goods inflation from tariffs would likely be offset by softer services prices as demand cooled.
For September, analysts are looking for a modest slowdown in core services CPI compared with August. Barclays projects disinflation in airline fares based on high-frequency data, alongside a moderation in shelter costs.
The bank expects shelter inflation to ease on broad-based disinflation across subcategories. “For owners’ equivalent rent (OER) CPI, we expect inflation to ease 10 basis points, to 0.28% m/m, as the August jump seemed like a quirk specific to that cohort,” Barclays said.
Source: SocGen, BLS, Haver
Fed’s Limited Visibility
The US government has now been shut down for roughly three weeks, marking the second-longest shutdown in history. The closure has disrupted data collection at key statistical agencies.
Barclays said the quality of September data should remain unaffected, since collection was completed before the shutdown. But it warned that a prolonged closure could undermine October’s data collection and accuracy.
Speaking earlier this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that while some economic releases have been delayed, the “outlook for employment and inflation did not appear to have changed much since the September meeting.”
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to deliver a second consecutive 25 bps cut to the federal funds rate next week, bringing it down from the current 4.00%–4.25% target range.
“We continue to expect a 25bp Fed rate cut in October, followed by one more in December,” Barclays said.
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- CPI to show hotter headline and steady core rates
- Import costs continue to lift goods inflation
- Slower shelter, travel inflation to ease some pressure
- Government shutdown complicating data visibility
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
23 October 2025 | 18:00 BST
The overdue release of September’s inflation data on Friday will give market participants and policymakers their first official view of price growth since the start of the U.S. government shutdown.
Economists polled forecast annual headline inflation rose to 3.1% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from August. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to remain steady at 3.1% y/y. Monthly, headline CPI is expected to increase 0.4%, unchanged from the prior month, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.3%.
Tariff passthrough is again expected to provide upside pressure on goods prices. After bottoming out at –1.9% y/y in August last year, goods inflation turned positive in April — the same month President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of punitive tariffs — and reached 1.5% in August.
Societe Générale’s Klaus Baader said tariffs would likely remain a meaningful inflation driver in the months ahead. “The evidence suggests that tariffs are feeding through to consumer prices at a gradual, rather than abrupt, rate. In our view, broadly speaking, we expect something like three-quarters of tariff-driven import cost increases to eventually end up in consumer prices.”
Earlier this year, some analysts argued that rising goods inflation from tariffs would likely be offset by softer services prices as demand cooled.
For September, analysts are looking for a modest slowdown in core services CPI compared with August. Barclays projects disinflation in airline fares based on high-frequency data, alongside a moderation in shelter costs.
The bank expects shelter inflation to ease on broad-based disinflation across subcategories. “For owners’ equivalent rent (OER) CPI, we expect inflation to ease 10 basis points, to 0.28% m/m, as the August jump seemed like a quirk specific to that cohort,” Barclays said.
The US government has now been shut down for roughly three weeks, marking the second-longest shutdown in history. The closure has disrupted data collection at key statistical agencies.
Barclays said the quality of September data should remain unaffected, since collection was completed before the shutdown. But it warned that a prolonged closure could undermine October’s data collection and accuracy.
Speaking earlier this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that while some economic releases have been delayed, the “outlook for employment and inflation did not appear to have changed much since the September meeting.”
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to deliver a second consecutive 25 bps cut to the federal funds rate next week, bringing it down from the current 4.00%–4.25% target range.
“We continue to expect a 25bp Fed rate cut in October, followed by one more in December,” Barclays said.