BoC Set To Pivot As Trade Tensions, Labour Market Strains Mount
- Inflation slips below target, core median measure steady at 3.1% - Labour market losses push unemployment to 9-year high - Macklem warns US tariffs weighing on growth, fuelling prices - Analysts see policy rate falling to 2% by year-end - Decision due 13:45 GMT/09:45 ET - Press conference set for 14:30 GMT/10:30 ET
The Bank of Canada will kick off a packed week of major central bank rate decisions, though its move is likely to be eclipsed by the US Federal Reserve’s announcement just hours later.
The Governing Council is widely expected to cut the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Wednesday, following its last reduction in March.
On Tuesday, Statistics Canada reported that headline inflation eased to 1.9% in August, slipping a tenth below forecasts. The Bank’s preferred core median measure remained steady at 3.1%, unchanged from July.
JP Morgan economist Bennett Parrish noted that with inflation trending lower and the labour market showing signs of recessionary stress, the bank appears ready to shift focus away from its earlier emphasis on price stability. “The most compelling case for renewed easing comes from the labour market, which has weakened sharply in recent months,” he said.
Last Friday, Canada reported that employment fell by 65,500 in August, pushing two-month job losses above 100,000 and lifting the unemployment rate to 7.1%—a nine-year high excluding the pandemic period.
Trade tensions with the United States continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Governor Tiff Macklem cautioned that US tariffs were hindering growth by curtailing exports and reducing jobs in trade-exposed industries, while also adding upward pressure on prices.
Parrish added that fiscal measures, including new infrastructure projects announced by Prime Minister Mark Carney, may provide medium-term support but are unlikely to arrive soon enough to avert additional monetary easing this year. “We continue to expect further BoC cuts, with the policy rate reaching 2%—just below the Bank’s estimated neutral range—by year-end,” he wrote.
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- Inflation slips below target, core median measure steady at 3.1%
- Labour market losses push unemployment to 9-year high
- Macklem warns US tariffs weighing on growth, fuelling prices
- Analysts see policy rate falling to 2% by year-end
- Decision due 13:45 GMT/09:45 ET
- Press conference set for 14:30 GMT/10:30 ET
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
16 September 2025 | 23:00 GMT
The Bank of Canada will kick off a packed week of major central bank rate decisions, though its move is likely to be eclipsed by the US Federal Reserve’s announcement just hours later.
The Governing Council is widely expected to cut the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Wednesday, following its last reduction in March.
On Tuesday, Statistics Canada reported that headline inflation eased to 1.9% in August, slipping a tenth below forecasts. The Bank’s preferred core median measure remained steady at 3.1%, unchanged from July.
JP Morgan economist Bennett Parrish noted that with inflation trending lower and the labour market showing signs of recessionary stress, the bank appears ready to shift focus away from its earlier emphasis on price stability. “The most compelling case for renewed easing comes from the labour market, which has weakened sharply in recent months,” he said.
Last Friday, Canada reported that employment fell by 65,500 in August, pushing two-month job losses above 100,000 and lifting the unemployment rate to 7.1%—a nine-year high excluding the pandemic period.
Trade tensions with the United States continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Governor Tiff Macklem cautioned that US tariffs were hindering growth by curtailing exports and reducing jobs in trade-exposed industries, while also adding upward pressure on prices.
Parrish added that fiscal measures, including new infrastructure projects announced by Prime Minister Mark Carney, may provide medium-term support but are unlikely to arrive soon enough to avert additional monetary easing this year. “We continue to expect further BoC cuts, with the policy rate reaching 2%—just below the Bank’s estimated neutral range—by year-end,” he wrote.