Bank of Canada Set To Hold Rates As Inflation Risks Complicate Policy Outlook
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- Macklem warns of surging inflation risks
- Headline CPI rises as core gauge eases
- Labour market sheds 110,000 jobs in two months
- Fresh forecasts to shape BoC rate outlook
- Announcement due 0945 EST/13:15 GMT
- Press conference scheduled for 10:30 EST/14:30 GMT
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
12:00 GMT | 27 October 2026
The Bank of Canada is expected to resist the temptation to raise interest rates on Wednesday as policymakers weigh climbing energy costs against an uncertain economic outlook.
The governing council is widely expected to leave the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, although markets are pricing in a 20% probability of a surprise hike. Alongside the decision itself, the bank staff will publish its updated monetary policy report.
Speaking at the recent IMF/World Bank meetings in Bangkok, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem warned that persistently high prices for crude oil and refined petroleum would prompt a significant upward revision to the bank's inflation forecasts. He added that the risk of more persistent price pressures had increased because of the ongoing Middle East conflict.
However, Citi’s Veronica Clark argued that, while hawkish, Macklem's comments largely echoed those from his September press conference.
“The summary of deliberations from that meeting seemed to give more explicit guidance on what would determine a rate hike. We do not think those conditions have been met.”
Nonetheless, last week's inflation data raised the prospect of a hike before year-end.
Headline CPI accelerated a tenth of a percentage point to 3.1% y/y in September, although underlying inflation measures remained considerably closer to the bank's 2% target.
CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.1% y/y, matching both expectations and August's reading. The CPI-trim measure eased a tenth to 1.8% y/y, while CPI-median slowed to 1.9% from 2.0%.
Citi's Clark noted that almost the entire overshoot in headline inflation was attributable to energy prices, with CPI excluding gasoline standing at just 2.2%.
The BoC's Q3 Business Outlook Survey (BOS), also released last week, offered a somewhat more encouraging picture of economic activity.
The survey, conducted largely before the breakdown in Canada-US trade talks and the announcement of new counter-tariffs, showed better business sentiment in the third quarter following a deterioration in Q2. The improvement reflected easing concerns over trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, alongside greater optimism about sales.
Investment intentions moderated slightly but remained robust, supported by stronger demand and elevated commodity prices. However, hiring intentions remained subdued, with most businesses saying plans were to leave staffing levels unchanged.
Citi's Clark said the bank was paying particular attention to the proportion of firms reporting significant difficulty meeting demand, an indicator that has recently proved more reliable than companies' stated intentions to raise prices in predicting core inflation. “We expect core inflation to remain modest as there are few capacity constraints (demand not strong enough to allow for price increases).”
Meanwhile, employment figures have raised fresh questions about the resilience of Canada's economic recovery. Statistics Canada said the economy shed 68,000 jobs in September after a loss of 42,000 in August, bringing the two-month decline to 110,000.
The unemployment rate edged up to 6.5% from 6.4%, with September's losses split between full-time employment, down 35,000, and part-time employment, down 33,000.
Analysts noted that the figures challenged the improving labour-market narrative presented at September's policy meeting, suggesting underlying demand remains fragile and strengthening the case against rushing into further monetary tightening.
For BoC officials, the challenge is balancing the inflationary effects of higher energy prices and tariffs against the risk of renewed economic weakness.
For some analysts, however, the balance of risks has shifted decisively towards tighter policy. JPMorgan's Bennett Parrish said his bank now expected policymakers to raise the overnight rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday.
While acknowledging that September's inflation figures showed little evidence of higher energy costs feeding into broader price pressures, Parrish highlighted a sharp increase in longer-term inflation expectations.
The BoC's Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations showed five-year inflation expectations climbing to 3.9% in Q3 from 3.4% in the previous quarter.
“The combination of rising longer-term inflation expectations, planned business cost pass-through, firmer-than-expected growth and the Bank’s increasingly proactive communication suggests the Governing Council will conclude that the cost of waiting has become too high,” Parrish argued.
He also warned that history suggested an October increase was unlikely to be a one-off move. “History suggests that an October move is unlikely to be a one-off: in each of the five completed hiking cycles since the BoC adopted fixed announcement dates, the second hike followed at the next scheduled decision. However, the mixed domestic backdrop suggests subsequent moves will be heavily data-dependent.”