LONDON – The UK economy appeared listless in February as labour disputes and national strike action took their toll on activity.
In the month to February, GDP growth was flat, undershooting estimates of a 0.1% expansion and below January’s upwardly revised 0.4%. Three-month-on-three-month economic activity rose 0.1%, up slightly on forecasts.
Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said, “Construction grew strongly after a poor January, with increased repair work taking place. There was also a boost from retailing, with many shops having a buoyant month.
Offsetting the positive contributions, services, the UK’s largest contributing sector fell by 0.1%, after growing by 0.7% in January. Morgan said the effects of Civil Service and teachers’ strike action, and unseasonably mild weather led to falls in the use of electricity and gas.
Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% on the month, following growth of 0.3% in January but still languish 8.9% below their pre-coronavirus levels (February 2020), while all other services were 2.2% above.
Industrial output fell 0.2% in February, versus 0.2% predicted and a downwardly revised -0.5%. Within the sector, manufacturing was flat with falls in 7 of its 13 sub-sectors.
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Putting a positive spin on Thursday’s release, Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics said the overall sense is that the economy was still proving resilient to the twin drags of high inflation and high interest rates. “Indeed, after factoring in the upward revision to growth in January, GDP would need to fall by 0.5% m/m or more in March for the economy to contract in Q1 as a whole. At this stage, something like a 0.2%/0.3% rise in March looks more likely.”
Elizabeth Martins, senior economist at HSBC appeared more sanguine. She noted that GDP numbers were a little disappointing following stronger survey data for February suggested a pick-up in momentum. “Given the circumstances - inflation still over 10% and Bank Rate at 4.00% (as it was in February), and the continuing aftermath of the triple shock the UK has been through with the pandemic, Brexit, and energy squeeze - things could have been a lot worse.
“The IMF earlier this week published an annual GDP growth forecast of -0.3% for the UK (compared with our own 0.4%). While we have not seen a quarterly breakdown, that does look a little pessimistic to us.”
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- UK activity in February fails to grow
- Service sector weakness weighs on output
- Public sector strike action drags on growth
- Unseasonal warm weather boosts construction
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
13 April 2023 | 10:00 GMT
LONDON – The UK economy appeared listless in February as labour disputes and national strike action took their toll on activity.
In the month to February, GDP growth was flat, undershooting estimates of a 0.1% expansion and below January’s upwardly revised 0.4%. Three-month-on-three-month economic activity rose 0.1%, up slightly on forecasts.
Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said, “Construction grew strongly after a poor January, with increased repair work taking place. There was also a boost from retailing, with many shops having a buoyant month.
Offsetting the positive contributions, services, the UK’s largest contributing sector fell by 0.1%, after growing by 0.7% in January. Morgan said the effects of Civil Service and teachers’ strike action, and unseasonably mild weather led to falls in the use of electricity and gas.
Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% on the month, following growth of 0.3% in January but still languish 8.9% below their pre-coronavirus levels (February 2020), while all other services were 2.2% above.
Industrial output fell 0.2% in February, versus 0.2% predicted and a downwardly revised -0.5%. Within the sector, manufacturing was flat with falls in 7 of its 13 sub-sectors.
Putting a positive spin on Thursday’s release, Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics said the overall sense is that the economy was still proving resilient to the twin drags of high inflation and high interest rates. “Indeed, after factoring in the upward revision to growth in January, GDP would need to fall by 0.5% m/m or more in March for the economy to contract in Q1 as a whole. At this stage, something like a 0.2%/0.3% rise in March looks more likely.”
Elizabeth Martins, senior economist at HSBC appeared more sanguine. She noted that GDP numbers were a little disappointing following stronger survey data for February suggested a pick-up in momentum. “Given the circumstances - inflation still over 10% and Bank Rate at 4.00% (as it was in February), and the continuing aftermath of the triple shock the UK has been through with the pandemic, Brexit, and energy squeeze - things could have been a lot worse.
“The IMF earlier this week published an annual GDP growth forecast of -0.3% for the UK (compared with our own 0.4%). While we have not seen a quarterly breakdown, that does look a little pessimistic to us.”