A month after the stock market was rocked by a worse-than-expected inflation report, investors are fearing a reprise when the latest data arrives on Tuesday.

Despite last week’s sideways price action, the S&P 500 Index is on a tear, climbing in 16 of the past 19 weeks on the back of improving earnings outlooks and a resilient US economy. The broad equities benchmark hasn’t had a better run than this since 1964. But some of those gains could be undone if the monthly consumer price index reading continues to show inflation remaining stubbornly sticky.

“The economic data is starting to raise more questions than answers over just how long it will take the Fed to gain more confidence about inflation improving,” Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, said over the phone. “Stocks have had a strong year so far, but have they come too far too fast? Probably.” (BBG - Continue Reading) 

US stocks’ torrid climb to start 2024 is evoking worrisome comparisons with past boom-and-bust cycles on Wall Street, sparking debate over the risk that the market is overheating.

There’s ample reason to wonder whether shares have advanced at an unsustainable pace: The S&P 500 Index has closed at record highs 16 times this year, accounting for about a third of all trading days; AI darling Nvidia has soared nearly 80%, adding roughly $1 trillion in market value, even after sliding Friday along with other tech shares; and speculative areas like Bitcoin have surged.

Yet there are signs that the strength, based in large part on the economy’s resilience and robust corporate earnings, hasn’t turned into a speculative frenzy. Several of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks have sputtered, showing that investors aren’t throwing money at the market with abandon. (BBG - Continue Reading) 

Britain's labour market slowed sharply in February as recruitment firms reported the biggest drop in demand for staff from employers since the coronavirus lockdown of early 2021, a survey showed on Monday.

The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) trade body and accountants KPMG said their monthly index of demand for staff fell to 46.9 in February from January's 49.4, the lowest reading since January 2021.

The survey pointed to a steep contraction in permanent staff hiring, while temporary staff billings shrank at the fastest rate since July 2020. Starting salaries for permanent staff rose at the weakest rate since March 2021 - something that Bank of England officials are likely to note as they seek evidence that inflation pressures are receding before voting to cut interest rates. (MS - Continue Reading)