Closing Wrap - Monday 02.11
Headlines
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Grows to 55.5% In Oct, Extending Streak
  • US Construction Spending Tumbles In September
  • Iran FM Holding Intensive Talks With Mediators
  • Trump Says No Rush To Decide Whether To Resume Iran War
  • Lutnick Led Push To Re-Engage In Canada Trade Talks
  • ECB’s Makhlouf Says France Needs To Fix Public Finances
  • Berlin Unveils Blueprint To Catch Up On AI
  • Meta Eyes At Least $20 Bln From Potential Bond Offerings
  • Oracle Kicks Off $20 Bln Capital Raise For AI Spending Plan
  • Alphabet Kicks Off Sale Of Its Second Euro Bond This Year
  • Oil Prices Plunge As Draft Proposal To End War Circulates
  • Gulf Arab Oil Giants Are Exporting Crude At Pre-War Rates Again
  • Musk: Grok Bot Limits Reduced Due To Unsustainable Costs
  • Anthropic Commits $895B In Spending As Mega-IPO Nears
Commentary
LiveSquawk Weekly Fixed Income Supply Preview

LONDON – European government bond issuance is set to pick up this week, led by France, Germany and Spain, although substantial coupon payments and redemptions should more than offset the new supply.

Around EUR 26-27 bln of euro-area government bonds are scheduled to come to market, with the bulk of issuance concentrated in Thursday's French and Spanish auctions.

The calendar contrasts with the US, where the Treasury has no auctions scheduled, leaving attention focused on Wednesday's quarterly refunding announcement and the outlook for borrowing requirements.

(LiveSquawk - Continue Reading)

Brutal AI Selloff Stirs Recession Fears

There are mounting signs that global growth is cooling. An AI-driven stock market slump could sharply deepen the slowdown and even tip several major economies into recession.

Whether the current selloff snowballs into something more serious remains to be seen. Over the past four years, the S&P 500 has only experienced one downturn of more than 10% — the plunge driven by President Donald Trump's “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in April 2025. But that was very short-lived.

(Continue Reading – RTRS)

A Guide To Swing-State Energy Politics Ahead Of US Midterms

Energy inflation is squeezing battleground US voters where it hurts most: their utility meters and fuel tanks.

Households in the states most likely to decide control of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections are paying $50 to $60 more a month for power and gasoline than a year ago, highlighting a budget strain that candidates can't easily explain away.

(Continue Reading – RTRS)

Gulf Arab Oil Giants Are Exporting Crude At Pre-War Rates Again

The Middle East’s leading Arab oil producing nations are shipping crude at about the same rate as before the war, bringing a tide of supply to the global market that’s helped to temper prices.

Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait climbed by 10% to 15.53 million barrels a day in October, putting them roughly in line with levels shipped at the start of the year, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and energy-analytics firms. By contrast, Iran’s exports remained at zero for a second month amid a US naval blockade.

(Bloomberg - Continue Reading)

Files & Links
DATA
WAR NEWS
GOVERNMENT/CENTRAL BANK NEWS
FIXED INCOME NEWS
FX NEWS
CRYPTO
ENERGY/COMMODITY NEWS
EARNINGS
EQUITY NEWS
/*jshint esversion: 6 */ var socket; var assigned_server = 3001; var distributor_server = 3010; var publisher_channel = ''; var broadcaster_channel = ''; var remote_ip = ''; var session_info = {}; var logging_interval; var logging_interval_time = 120000; var socket_emits = 0; var session_start_time; var reconnectionDelayGrowFactor = 1.2; var reconnection_delay = 1000; var playing = false; var connected_to_assigned = false; var socket_close_timeout; var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay = 1500; var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null; const TOKEN_ENDPOINT = "https://www.livesquawk.com/api/get_token.php"; self.onmessage = function (msg) { switch(msg.data.action) { case 'Reactivate': reactivate(); break; case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break; case 'SessionStaticInfo': session_static_info(msg); break; case 'SessionInfo': update_session_info(msg.data); break; case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break; case 'RestartLogging': postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionStaticInfo' }); break; case 'JoinPublisherChannel': join_publisher_channel(msg.data); break; case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break; case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break; case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break; case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break; case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break; case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break; case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break; case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break; case 'GetConnectionState': checkSocketConnectionState(); break; } }; function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear() { clearTimeout(player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout); player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null; } function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start() { player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = setTimeout(function() { send_play_disconnect_annoucement(); }, player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay ); } function send_play_disconnect_annoucement() { postMessage({action: "PlayDisconnectAnnoucement"}); } function reactivate() { playing = false; connect_to_assigned_server(); } function player_log_response(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'PlayerLogResponse'; data_array.respond_to_socket_final = data.respond_to_socket_final; data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket; data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id; data_array.logs = data.logs; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function request_message_search(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_message_search'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.search_term = data.search_term; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function request_more_messages(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_more_messages'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function check_channel_status(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'check_channel_status'; data_array.app_name = data.app_name; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1 && connected_to_assigned) { socket.send(msg_string); } else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); } } function check_channel_status_response(data) { postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected }); } async function join_publisher_channel(data) { if (typeof data.jwt_token === 'string' && data.jwt_token !== '') { if (!socket || socket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN) { console.warn("[Page worker] JWT join skipped: socket not open"); return; } socket.send(JSON.stringify({ type: "join_publisher_channel", jwt_token: data.jwt_token, publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel, username: data.username, subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group, display_name: data.display_name, single_sign_on: data.single_sign_on, remote_ip: data.remote_ip, http_referrer: data.http_referrer, current_page: data.current_page, php_session_id: data.php_session_id, from_react: data.from_react, ...(typeof data.api_key === "string" && data.api_key.trim() !== "" ? { api_key: data.api_key } : {}), })); console.log("[Page worker] Sent supplied JWT join"); postMessage({ action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' }); return; } const joinSocket = socket; if (!joinSocket || joinSocket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN) { return; } const apiKey = typeof data.api_key === "string" ? data.api_key.trim() : ""; const partnerName = partnerFromCurrentPage(data.current_page); let tokenBody; if (apiKey !== "") { tokenBody = { api_key: apiKey }; } else if (partnerName) { tokenBody = { partner_name: partnerName }; } else { tokenBody = { username: data.username || "", publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel || "", }; } let jwtToken = null; try { const requestStartedAt = Date.now(); const response = await fetch(TOKEN_ENDPOINT, { method: "POST", headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" }, body: JSON.stringify(tokenBody), credentials: "same-origin", cache: "no-store", }); if (!response.ok) { throw new Error(`token endpoint returned ${response.status}`); } const tokenData = await response.json(); if ( !tokenData || typeof tokenData.token !== "string" || tokenData.token === "" ) { throw new Error("token endpoint returned no token"); } const expiresIn = Number(tokenData.expires_in); if (!Number.isFinite(expiresIn) || expiresIn <= 0) { throw new Error("token endpoint returned an invalid lifetime"); } const expiresAt = requestStartedAt + (expiresIn * 1000); if (expiresAt <= Date.now() + 30000) { throw new Error("token response has insufficient remaining lifetime"); } jwtToken = tokenData.token; } catch (error) { console.warn("[Page worker] Token request failed", error); // API-key requests must not silently bypass token authentication. if (apiKey !== "") { postMessage({ action: "auth_failed" }); return; } } // A reconnect during the fetch makes this join attempt obsolete. if ( socket !== joinSocket || joinSocket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN ) { return; } const payload = { type: "join_publisher_channel", publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel, username: data.username, subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group, display_name: data.display_name, single_sign_on: data.single_sign_on, remote_ip: data.remote_ip, http_referrer: data.http_referrer, current_page: data.current_page, php_session_id: data.php_session_id, from_react: data.from_react, }; if (apiKey !== "") { payload.api_key = apiKey; } if (jwtToken) { payload.jwt_token = jwtToken; } console.log( jwtToken ? "[Page worker] Sending fetched JWT with legacy details" : "[Page worker] Sending legacy join without JWT" ); joinSocket.send(JSON.stringify(payload)); postMessage({ action: "PublisherChannelJoined" }); } function partnerFromCurrentPage(current_page) { try { if (!current_page) return ''; const fullUrl = current_page.startsWith('http') ? current_page : `https://${current_page}`; return new URL(fullUrl).searchParams.get('partner_name') || ''; } catch (e) { return ''; } } function session_static_info(msg) { set_static_session_info(msg.data); start_log(); } function connect_to_distributor(msg) { publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel; remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip; socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); switch(data.type) { case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break; } }; } function session_info_interval() { postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' }); logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time); } function server_assignment_response(data) { assigned_server = data.selected_server; socket.close(); connect_to_assigned_server(); } function request_server_assignment() { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment'; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function connect_to_assigned_server() { socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server }); console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server); postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' }); connected_to_assigned = true; if (playing) { postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' }); } }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ } switch(data.type) { case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break; case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break; case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break; case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break; case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break; case 'player_log_request': case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break; case 'PlayerLogRequest': case 'new_tweet': case 'new_latest_news': case 'delete_report': case 'add_report': case 'add_ref_doc': case 'calendar_change': case 'calendar_insert': case 'calendar_delete': case 'new_note': case 'AppStart': case 'AppStop': case 'BroadcasterStarted': case 'BroadcasterStopped': case 'added_cme_report': case 'updated_cme_report': case 'added_cme_commentary': case 'updated_cme_commentary': case 'server_assignment_response': case 'initial_messages': case 'message_categories': case 'more_messages': case 'matched_messages': pass_straight_to_post_message(data); break; case 'output': case 'server_ping': case 'reconnect': case 'disconnect': break; } }; socket.onerror = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type }); console.log(event); postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' }); }; socket.onclose = function(event) { console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason); socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay); reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor; connected_to_assigned = false; }; } function checkSocketConnectionState() { postMessage({ action: 'SocketConnectionState', connected: Boolean(socket && socket.readyState === WebSocket.OPEN && connected_to_assigned ), }); } function close_socket() { clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout); socket_close_timeout = null; socket.onclose = function(event) {}; socket.onmessage = function(event) {}; socket.onerror = function(event) {}; socket.close(1000); console.log('Socket Closed'); } function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) { data.action = data.type; postMessage(data); } function join_player_channel(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'join_player_channel'; data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel; data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; data_array.username = data.username; data_array.app_name = data.app_name; data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status; data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; data_array.current_page = data.current_page; data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' }); playing = true; } function start_log_response(data) { session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id; session_info_interval(); } function application_refresh_start(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); } } function application_refresh_stop(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); } } function set_static_session_info(data) { session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename; session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name; session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent; session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version; session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled; session_info.platform = data.platform; session_info.player_version = data.player_version; session_info.stream = data.stream; session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol; session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target; session_info.session_email = data.session_email; session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; session_info.application_name = data.application_name; session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; } function start_log() { var session_start_date = new Date(); session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime(); var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec']; var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear(); var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log'; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.username = session_info.session_email; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.webrtc_protocol = ''; data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0); data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream; data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function update_session_info(data) { var data_array = {}; var msg_string = ''; var current_date = new Date(); var current_time = current_date.getTime(); session_info.protocol = data.protocol; session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2); session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time; session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time; session_info.jitter = data.jitter; session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss; session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency; session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score; session_info.restarts = data.restarts; if (socket_emits == 0) { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full'; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename; data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name; data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent; data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version; data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled; data_array.platform = session_info.platform; data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.delay_target = 0; data_array.op_sys = ''; data_array.flash_version = ''; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } else { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data'; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } socket_emits++; if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; } }