Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show that elevated energy costs continued to weigh on US households as the Iran conflict enters its fifteenth week.

Headline CPI is forecast to accelerate to 4.3% y/y in May from 3.8% previously, potentially reaching its highest level since April 2023. On a monthly basis, prices are expected to rise 0.5%, easing slightly from April's 0.6% increase. Annual core CPI is projected to edge up to 2.9% from 2.8%, while the monthly core measure is expected to rise 0.3%, a tenth below April's pace. (LS - Continue Reading)

Bank of Canada policymakers are widely expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at the conclusion of Wednesday's meeting.

The latest economists' poll forecasts the central bank will keep its overnight rate at 2.25%. However, investors will closely scrutinise the accompanying statement for any shifts in tone or forward guidance.

Despite ongoing concerns over the evolving conflict in the Middle East, analysts expect policymakers to balance external risks against a weakening domestic backdrop. TD Securities said: "We do not expect any material change to the bank's messaging as it continues to balance a softer domestic backdrop with the risk of broader inflation pressures."

At its April meeting, the governing council said it would look through the immediate inflationary effects of the conflict but stressed it would not allow higher energy prices to become entrenched. Policymakers added that, "As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed." (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)

An uncomfortable energy deadline is looming for the White House.

Back in March, when it became clear the Strait of Hormuz closure represented the biggest disruption to global oil trade in history, the Trump administration authorized 172 million barrels of crude oil to be released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, equal to 40% of the available stockpile. The decision was taken in coordination with other members of the International Energy Agency, who collectively agreed to kick in an additional 228 million barrels. (Semafor – Continue Reading)

Fitch Ratings has increased most of its near-term metals and mining price assumptions, reflecting year-to-date prices and commodity-specific supply and demand drivers.

The increased 2026 copper assumption reflects higher year-to-date prices. We continue to incorporate healthy demand, despite a slowdown in the implementation of energy transition policies in some developed markets, while the pace of supply growth from new projects remains constrained by onerous permitting processes.

The increased near-term iron ore assumptions reflect higher shipping and logistics costs, driven by increased fuel costs due to the Iran war. (Fitch – Continue Reading)