As the clock runs down on a two-week ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran, the key question is whether they can reach an accord to end a war that has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crunch.

While talks in Pakistan concluded without a deal, the two sides are considering extending their truce by another fortnight to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

Pre-war planning meant Iran’s military was able to mitigate the impact of US-Israeli strikes on its weapons arsenal and leadership, according to Western military intelligence assessments — which also say it retains the ability to respond if the ceasefire fails.

The country has sustained massive damage to its infrastructure and its most senior leaders have been killed. But operational planning undertaken in anticipation of the conflict was effective in preventing the destruction of its missile and drone capabilities as well as maximizing the impact of its military response, people familiar with the assessments said, requesting anonymity discussing private reports. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

With less than 2 weeks remaining until the next European Central Bank meeting, the bloc’s policymakers appear undecided on the future of interest rates.

Financial markets are currently pricing in a hold at the April 29-30 meeting, followed by a hike in June, according to LSEG data. The majority of traders expect the ECB’s key interest rate to reach at least 2.5% by the end of the year – a hike of 50 basis points or more from current levels.

Speaking to CNBC at the IMF’s Spring Meeting in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, Joachim Nagel, president of Germany’s Bundesbank, said oil price volatility had left the ECB “between our baseline and our adverse scenario.” (CNBC – Continue Reading)

A stronger-than-expected expansion of the UK economy in February will be welcomed by households and policymakers alike, but is likely to carry limited weight against a deteriorating global backdrop.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed GDP rose 0.5% in February, comfortably above the 0.1% consensus and an upwardly revised 0.1% in January (initially reported as flat), following 0.1% growth in December.

In the three months to February, the economy expanded by 0.5%, two-tenths faster than the previous three-month period and ahead of the 0.2% forecast. (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)

The Bank of England has confirmed plans to test the use of AI agents in financial trading markets, according to a response published by the Treasury Committee today.

After the Committee recommended that the Bank should undertake AI-specific stress-testing, the organisation has set out plans to investigate the potential impact of AI agents demonstrating correlated behaviour. This is also known as ‘herding’.

The details are shared in a response to the Treasury Committee’s report on the use of AI in financial services. HM Treasury and the Financial Conduct Authority have also responded to the report. (Parliament – Continue Reading)

Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel supplies, the head of the International Energy Agency said Thursday in a wide-ranging interview, warning of possible flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies remain blocked by the Iran war.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol painted a sobering picture of the global repercussions of what he called “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” stemming from the pinch-off of oil, gas and other vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

“In the past there was a group called ‘Dire Straits.’ It’s a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy. And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world,” he told The Associated Press. (AP – Continue Reading)