Closing Wrap - Tuesday 07.04
Headlines
  • Pakistan PM Requests Trump To Extend Iran Deadline For 2 Weeks
  • Trump Deadline Looms, Iran Cuts, Then Reopens Communication With US
  • Iran Talks Show Glimmer Of Progress As Trump Deadline Looms
  • Iran Signals Long Multi-Front War As Trump Ultimatum Nears
  • Fed’s Goolsbee Warns Of Stagflation Risk From Iran War, Oil Shock
  • Fed’s Williams Expects Little Change To Underlying Inflation
  • IMF Chief Warns World Is Ill-Equipped To Counter Iran War Risks
  • Heads Of IEA, IMF, World Bank To Meet Monday To Discuss Energy Crisis
  • EIA Raises Oil-Price Forecasts As War In Middle East Continues
  • Apple’s Foldable iPhone Remains On Track For September Debut
  • Intel Stock Gains After Joining Terafab Chip Project
  • Anthropic Rolls Out Cyber AI Model Days After Source Code Leak
  • Amazon’s Tough Stance On Prices Prompts Brands To Pull Products
  • Blackstone Hits USD10 Bln Cap For Opportunistic Credit Fund
Commentary
Trump Deadline Looms, Iran Cuts, Then Reopens Communication With US

Hours before Trump's deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran shut the door entirely, then cracked it open.

Tehran Times said on Tuesday that Iran had suspended all diplomatic and indirect lines of communication with the United States. Hours after the earlier report, the Iranian media outlet said diplomatic and indirect channels of talks with the US are not closed, signalling active efforts to attain a ceasefire.

"Iran has closed all diplomatic and indirect channels of communication with the United States. Any and all message exchanges have also been suspended," the outlet said earlier.

The move came just hours before President Donald Trump's self-imposed deadline for Iran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (NDTV – Continue Reading)

Hegseth’s Boastful Claims About Iran War Contradict Reality, Officials Say

President Donald Trump has continued to describe the war against Iran as an unqualified success, saying as recently as Monday that the United States was doing “unbelievably well,” while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tehran had been “embarrassed and humiliated” by U.S. forces.

But Iran’s downing of an F-15E fighter jet and the high-risk rescue operation that ensued showed that Tehran retains the ability to threaten the United States’ military personnel and cast doubt on the statistics Hegseth has promoted in recent weeks, boasting about “complete control of Iranian skies” and “uncontested airspace,” U.S. officials and analysts said. (Washington Post – Continue Reading)

JPMorgan Chase Head Warns Of Unexpected Global Interest Rate Shocks As A Result Of Iran War

The head of the world’s biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase, has warned the world will face “significant” interest rate shocks as a consequence of Donald Trump’s war on Iran.

Jamie Dimon said spiralling oil and gas prices, which have skyrocketed following Iran’s blockade of the key shipping lane, the Strait of Hormuz, and its attacks on regional energy infrastructure, would lead to “stickier” inflation that could push up interest rates.

Higher interest rates mean more costly borrowing of money for loans and investments, as well as mortgages, government borrowing costs and more. They are also associated with lower economic growth, as firms do not spend as much on new projects or hiring, and consumers spend less on non-essential items as they manage household finances amid rising essential bills. (Yahoo – Continue Reading)

Little Evidence Of Increase In USD Hedge Ratios

It seems a lifetime ago, but before the conflict in Iran, dollar weakness at the start of the year was again asking questions about whether European investors were divesting from US assets or at least raising the FX hedge ratios on their US investments. This was the period when Washington was threatening to take Greenland by force after successfully deposing Nicolas Maduro.

Evidence to support the above is limited and, when it comes to hedge ratios, contrary. With regard to the underlying purchase of US assets by foreigners, the most recent US TIC data we have is for January. Private sector demand for US Treasuries and Agencies has softened since last summer and has been a small net negative over the last couple of months. Yet this is a very volatile series. And foreign private sector demand for US equities has remained quite robust despite all the talk of more attractive opportunities overseas. The foreign private sector is a key swing financer of US deficits, with their flows swamping those of the official sector over recent years. (ING – Continue Reading)

AP Decision Notes: What To Expect In Georgia’s Special Congressional Runoff

Three months after Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned from Congress following a public rift with President Donald Trump, voters in the northwest Georgia congressional district she once represented will pick a replacement to serve out the remainder of her term.

Tuesday’s special congressional runoff marks the second time in less than a month that voters in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District cast ballots for their representative in Washington. None of the 17 contenders in a March 10 special election received a majority of the vote, triggering Tuesday’s contest between the top two vote-getters.

The outcome will almost immediately affect the fragile balance of power in the closely divided U.S. House, where Republicans cling to a 217-214 majority. An additional seat is held by a former Republican who became an independent in March, while twoseats remain vacant. (AP – Continue Reading)

Files & Links
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IRAN WAR
GOVERNMENT/CENTRAL BANK NEWS
FIXED INCOME NEWS
FX NEWS
CRYPTO NEWS
ENERGY/COMMODITY NEWS
EQUITY NEWS
EMERGING MARKETS NEWS
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