The Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act as it prepares for its December 2025 policy meeting. With inflation still above its 2% target and labor market signals mixed, the central bank must weigh the risks of tightening policy too aggressively against the need to anchor inflation expectations. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report and employment data underscore this tension, offering critical insights into the Fed's potential path forward.

The September 2025 core PCE price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.91% year-over-year, matching the previous month's figure and aligning with market expectations. This level remains significantly above the Fed's long-term target, with the month-over-month increase of 0.23% further highlighting persistent inflationary pressures. While the headline PCE inflation rate grew 0.26% from July to August, the core measure remains the Fed's primary focus, as it reflects underlying trends in consumer spending.

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Through yesterday’s close, volume on Dec ’25 CME Emini S&P 500 futures was barely higher than that of last week’s Thanksgiving holiday-shortened trade. Not only is this highly unusual, it also suggests that neither bulls nor bears have control of the market. That said, this week’s price action has created what chartists call a “hanging man” candlestick pattern, which usually portends lower prices.

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Speaker Mike Johnson is pushing to unveil a Republican health care bill in the coming days for a vote by the end of the month, but the move is unlikely to resolve a congressional deadlock over expiring Obamacare subsidies.

The GOP plan is likely to include ideas the party has floated in the past to create less comprehensive plans to compete with Obamacare and to divert premium tax credits for the insurance policies toward tax-sheltered savings accounts individuals can use to cover non-premium out-of-pocket costs.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries blasted Republicans for refusing to negotiate on an extension of the subsidies and accused them of working to undermine the Affordable Care Act’s insurance exchanges.

(Detroit News - Continue Reading)

Momentum in the nation’s redistricting battle swung toward Republicans this week as the Supreme Court upheld a GOP-friendly map in Texas and Indiana lawmakers pushed one through the state House on Friday.

The developments marked a change of fortune for President Donald Trump’s push to redraw maps, which had faced recent setbacks. Democrats were doing better than initially expected at counteracting the GOP efforts and a three-judge panel last month sidelined Texas’s new map.

But the Supreme Court’s ruling on Thursday restored Texas’s map so it can be used next year, and Republicans across the country took the decision as a sign they could redraw more lines as they seek to retain a fragile majority in the U.S. House next year.

(WaPo - Continue Reading)