US Briefing - Friday 06.11
Headlines
- US And Iran Edge Closer To Deal With Nuclear Issue Back In Play
- Trump Meets With Natl Security Team: Iran War Decision Coming "Soon"
- Iran-Linked Ships Hover Over Subsea Cables After Threats
- Trump: Iran Not Doing Anything On Nuclear Without Our Approval
- US Envoy Kushner: Held Productive, Substantive Talks With Ukraine, NATO
- Trump Meets Putin Envoy Kirill Dmitriev At The White House
- Fed’s Williams: US Economy Resilient But Inflation Too High
- Democrats Prepare Wide Congressional Probes Into Corporate Trump Allies
- Democrats Are Hatching A Plan To Reverse Trump's Canada Tariffs
- US Sec Rubio Rejects Reports He Will Leave His Jobs To Run For President
- ECB's Lane: Energy Inflation To Influence Wage Negotiations
- Japan's PM Takaichi Eyes BoJ's ETF Sales To Fund Economic Security
- Japan's Nominal Wages Rise At Fastest Pace In Almost 30 Years
- Eisenkot Expected To Secure Presidential Mandate To Form Government
- Saudi Arabia Cuts December Asia Oil Prices To Fresh 6-Year Low
- China To Cut Diesel Exports On Tight Stocks, Energy Aspects Says
- Wall Str Sheds $3.2T As Democratic Midterm Landslide Upends AI Bet
- Cloudflare Boosts Annual Profit View As AI Spurs Network Demand
- Airbnb Posts 19% Revenue Jump As Chesky Hails 'Growth Mode'
- Moderna Boosts Revenue Guidance On COVID Vaccine Sales
- Microchip Q2 Revenue Rises; Issues Q3 Guidance
- Daimler Truck Q3 Profit Rises On NA Recovery
- IAG Cuts Capacity, Investment Plan As Fuel Costs Weigh
- Japan's GPIF Suffers First Loss In Six Quarters
- Nvidia Boosts Chip Tracking In Southeast Asia To Fight Smuggling
- FDA Grants J&J Accelerated Approval For Head, Neck Cancer Treatment
- Blackstone Doubles Lock-Up Periods For Some Asian Investors
- Major Investors Are Sceptical Anthropic IPO Can Achieve $1.5T Valuation
- Japan's Nikkei Poised To Enter Bear Market As AI Selloff Deepens
- S.Korea’s Kospi Index Plunges 6% At Close Amid Brutal AI Sell-Off
Commentary
US Payrolls Growth May Help Guide Fed’s December Decision
Friday’s US employment report is expected to show that the labour market remained steady in October, leaving the Federal Reserve to judge whether hiring is in recovery or set to weaken more materially.
Economists’ estimates compiled by LiveSquawk point to a median forecast of 65,000 nonfarm payrolls, following September’s 29,000 gain. Forecasts range from 40,000 to 120,000, underlining some uncertainty around the underlying pace of hiring.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y.
US-Canada Trade Deal Would Hurt European Aluminium Buyers
A reduction in US tariffs on Canadian aluminium is just a question of "when, not if," according to Jorge Vazquez, founder and managing director of US consultancy Harbor Aluminium, speaking at last month's LME Seminar.
That was a bold call at the time, but the two countries now appear close to a trade deal. Even US President Donald Trump says so, although Canadian negotiators are taking a more cautious line in public, at least.
Electric Vehicles Are Just The Tip Of The UK’s Coming China Shock
The UK’s decision-making on China is characterized by “reactivity, inconsistency and opacity,” a parliamentary committee declared this week. That’s an assessment that’s been true for years but is becoming more alarming as the world’s second-largest economy develops more technologically advanced, higher-value exports. Countries unprepared for epochal shifts lose control over how the changes shape them.
The scale of what’s been called China Shock 2.0 is mind-numbing. In 2000, before it joined the World Trade Organization, China accounted for 6% of global manufacturing. In 2030, its share will reach 45% — more than double the combined output of the US, Germany and Japan, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization.
Files & Links
DATA
- Eurozone Retail Sales (M/M) Sep: -0.7% (est -0.1%; prev 0.1%)
- Germany Industrial Production WDA (Y/Y) Sep: 0.4% (est 1.2%; prev 2.3%; prevR 0.7%)
- France Current Account Balance (EUR) Sep: -2.7B (prev -1.5B; prevR -1.4B)
- France Wages (Q/Q) Q3 P: 0.2% (prev 0.7%)
- Spain Industrial Production (M/M) Sep: 0.8% (est 0.4%; prev -0.7%)
- Switzerland SECO Consumer Confidence Oct: -44.9 (est -35.5; prev -35.8)
- Norway Industrial Production (M/M) Sep: 1.0% (prev 1.0%)
- Sweden Budget Balance (SEK) Oct: -14.5B (prev-23.0B)
- UK Lloyds House Price Index (Y/Y) Oct: 1.2% (prev 0.0%)
- BoJ Yen Index Nov-6: 73.77 (prev 73.38)
WAR NEWS
- US And Iran Edge Closer To Deal With Nuclear Issue Back In Play – BBG
- To Cross The Red Sea, Shippers Email Houthi Rebels. – WSJ
- Trump Meets With Natl Security Team: Iran War Decision Coming "Soon" – Axios
- Iran Celebrates Trump's Election Defeat As Mediators Push For Deal To End War – FT
- Iran-Linked Ships Hover Over Subsea Cables After Threats – FT
- Trump: Iran Not Doing Anything Without Our Approval – MEE
- US Envoy Kushner: Held Productive, Substantive Talks With Ukraine, NATO – AP
- Trump Meets Putin Envoy Kirill Dmitriev At The White House – BBG
- Kremlin Accuses Europe Of Struggling To Decide Talk Reps – RTRS
- Ukraine Pres: Must Adapt To New US Realities, Solve PAC Issue – RTRS
GOVERNMENT/CENTRAL BANK NEWS
- Fed’s Williams US Economy Resilient But Inflation Too High – TV
- Democrats Prepare Wide Congressional Probes Into Corporate Trump Allies – WAPO
- US Sec Rubio: Elections In Venezuela Would 'Ideally' Be Held Next Year – NYT
- Democrats Are Hatching A Plan To Reverse Trump's Canada Tariffs – WSJ
- US Sec Rubio Rejects Reports He Will Leave His Jobs To Run For President – NYT
- Canada PM, BoC Renew Framework To Focus On 2% Inflation Target – BBG
- Canada Budget Relaxes Foreign Buyer Ban, Includes Billions For Housing – BBG
- Canada To Reform Bank Ownership Rules In Bid To Stoke Competition – BBG
- PM Carney Spends Canada's Oil Windfall In Bid To Drive Growth – BBG
- ECB's Lane: Energy Inflation To Influence Wage Negotiations – FXStreet
- Germany Fears Breaking Dependence On US Weapons Could Strain Ties – Politico
- Japan's PM Takaichi Eyes BoJ's ETF Sales To Fund Economic Security – BBG
- Japan's Nominal Wages Rise At Fastest Pace In Almost 30 Years – BBG
- Japan PM Takaichi Announces Emergency Cybersecurity Package – BBG
- Eisenkot Expected To Secure Presidential Mandate To Form Government – JPost
FIXED INCOME NEWS
- Global Government Bonds Rally; Tech Sell-Off Drives Investors – Yahoo
- Treasury Yields Inch Lower; Investors Look Ahead To NFP – CNBC
- BofA Rejigs Global Credit Trading Businesses To Boost Liquidity – BBG
FX NEWS
- USD/CAD: Trades Strongly Ahead Of US, Canada Jobs – FXStreet
- Euro Remains Depressed After Weak EZ Retail Sales – FXStreet
- GBP/USD: Pound Extends Correction Awaiting NFP – FXStreet
- USD/JPY: Traders Seem Hesitant Below 158.00 – FXStreet
- AUD/USD: Slips Below 0.6900 As Bearish Bias Prevails – FXStreet
- NZD Dips To 19M Lows Ahead NFP Numbers - FXStreet
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin Recovers $76K Level; ETFs Shed $430M – Coin Desk
- Hackers Paid $15 To Drain $2.5B From Binance In One Hit – BBG
- Hyperliquid Seeking US Nod As Domestic Futures Platform – CoinDesk
ENERGY/COMMODITY NEWS
- Oil Slides Below $100 A Barrel, With Focus On Iran Outlook – WSJ
- Oil Heads For Steep Weekly Loss As Mideast Peace Prospects Rise – BBG
- Saudi Arabia Cuts December Asia Oil Prices To Fresh 6-Year Low – Zawya
- China To Cut Diesel Exports On Tight Stocks, Energy Aspects Says – BBG
- EU Council Agrees To Postpone Methane Rules For One Year
- Britain's Gas Use Set To Surge Due To Data Centres – FT
- Major Australian Gas Project Enters Administration As Costs Soar – BBG
- Gold Struggles Below $4,1K; US Nonfarm Payrolls In Focus – FXStreet
EARNINGS
- Cloudflare Boosts Annual Profit View As AI Spurs Network Demand – BBG
- Airbnb Posts 19% Revenue Jump As Chesky Hails 'Growth Mode' – BBG
- Moderna Boosts Revenue Guidance On COVID Vaccine Sales - BBG
- Humana Raises FY Profit Forecast On Lower Medical Costs – RTRS
- Microchip Q2 Revenue Rises; Issues Q3 Guidance - – MS
- Charter Communications Q3 Revenue Misses, EBITDA Beats – PN
- DraftKings Plunges On 2027 Forecast That Misses Estimates – BBG
- Lyft Posts Surprise Loss On Settlement, Gives In-Line Outlook – BBG
- Daimler Truck Q3 Profit Rises On NA Recovery – RTRS
- Monte Paschi Q3 Profit Rises, Takeover Looms – WSJ
- IAG Cuts Capacity, Investment Plan As Fuel Costs Weigh – WSJ
- Mitsubishi Heavy Raises Order Target, Announces Buyback – Investing
- Japan's GPIF Suffers First Loss In Six Quarters – BBG
- Macquarie Beats Expectations With 50% Jump In First-Half Profit – WSJ
EQUITY NEWS
- Wall Str Sheds $3.2T As Democratic Midterm Landslide Upends AI Bet – FT
- Nvidia Boosts Chip Tracking In Southeast Asia To Fight Smuggling – BBG
- Lily, Hims & Hers Expand Access To FDA Approved Lilly Medicines – BW
- Protestors Enter Microsoft Data Centre Construction Site In Amsterdam – Yahoo
- FDA Grants J&J Accelerated Approval For Head And Neck Cancer Treatment – RTRS
- Lam Research Announces $25B Buybacks; Declares Dividend – Stocktitan
- T-Mobile Customers Swap Roaming, Hotspots For Streaming Benefits – BBG
- Accenture And Big Four Move Downmarket In Hunt For Growth – FT
- Blackstone Doubles Lock-Up Periods For Some Asian Investors – FT
- NASA Plans To Host New US Air Show With Eye To Boeing's Next Jet – BBG
- Major Investors Are Sceptical Anthropic IPO Can Achieve $1.5T Valuation – WSJ
- Silver Lake, PIF Have Held Talks To Acquire Unity Software – RTRS
- ING Said To Be Seller Of $500M Data Center Loan Portfolio – BBG
- HSBC Raises Maximum Tender For Perpetual Securities To $1.5B From $1B – MS
- JLR Knew Of Faulty Range Rover Part Years Before Expanding Recalls – FT
- Japan's Nikkei Poised To Enter Bear Market As AI Selloff Deepens – BBG
- China Top Chipmaker Targets Homegrown Tools For New Factory – RTRS
- Kospi Plunges 6% Amid Brutal AI Sell-Off – Korea Herald