President Trump—faced with rising oil prices and pushback from his MAGA base—is signaling that he wants to wind down the war he launched against Iran less than two weeks ago. But stopping the fighting carries big risks, even if Iran lets him.

If Trump proclaims victory, stops the bombing and begins to withdraw the huge air and naval assets he assembled in the Middle East, it could soothe global markets, at least in the short term, and reassure American voters uneasy about the prospect of another forever war. (WSJ – Continue Reading)

India is in talks with Iran to secure the safe passage of more than 20 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, according to people familiar with the matter.

Negotiations are still ongoing and are being handled by the ministry of foreign affairs, said the people, who asked not to be named as the conversations are sensitive. The narrow waterway, through which around a fifth of the world’s crude typically flows, has been effectively closed since the start of the war in the Persian Gulf. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

When investors fret over geopolitical shocks, they usually rotate into safe havens such as consumer staples and healthcare. That was the case in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent already-surging inflation even higher.

That isn’t happening this time.

Since the start of the war, an unusual bifurcation has emerged. Energy has surged, as one might expect. Less obviously, tech and software stocks have also advanced, while traditional safety plays such as healthcare and packaged food have sold off. (WSJ – Continue Reading)