It has been a bumper week for top-tier US data, with Friday’s inflation report set to crown proceedings.

Headline CPI is forecast to cool to 2.5% y/y in January from 2.7% previously. On the month, prices are expected to rise 0.3%, matching December’s pace. Annual core CPI is seen at 2.5%, a tenth lower than the prior reading, while the monthly core gauge is projected to print 0.3%, a tenth firmer than last time.

Citi analysts expect inflation to soften further, reinforcing the view that weaker Q4 prints were not solely the result of measurement distortions linked to the government shutdown. Such an outcome would also reaffirm that underlying price pressures are becoming increasingly contained.

Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that upward pressure stemmed from recreation, airline fares, medical care, apparel, personal care and education. These gains were partly offset by declines in communication, used cars and trucks, and household furnishings and operations. (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)

OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming increases to oil output from April, three OPEC+ sources said, as the group prepares for peak summer demand and price strength is bolstered by tensions over U.S.-Iran relations.

The resumption of production increases will allow OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and fellow member the UAE to regain market share at a time members such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran contend with Western sanctions and a series of setbacks restrain Kazakh output. (Reuters – Continue Reading)

As Ukraine prepares for another round of peace talks as early as next week, Ukrainian officials say the Trump administration is ramping up pressure on them to make concessions to Russia in a push to end the war by early summer.

Ukraine is trying to balance between meeting American expectations and avoiding what it views as unacceptable compromises on territory and other issues. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has expressed frustration that the United States is pushing harder on Kyiv than on Moscow to give ground. But he has also made it clear that Ukraine must do what it can to keep the Trump administration engaged in the process. (NY Times – Continue Reading)

After the week Keir Starmer’s had, talks about the teetering global order should be a welcome relief.

The British PM arrives in Bavaria Friday for the Munich Security Conference having seen two of his closest aides walk out, his top man in Scotland urge him to quit, and continued rage from Labour MPs over the decision to appoint Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador to the U.S.

Having staved off his immediate ouster, Starmer is now making another outing on the international stage, where his allies argue he carries genuine clout. He has so far been keen to emphasize the links he’s built with foreign leaders, including his relationship with Donald Trump and his efforts at a “reset” with the EU, as a marker of the renewed British influence that would be at risk were he challenged. (POLITICO – Continue Reading)