China has begun designing a new rare earth licensing regime that could speed up shipments, but it is unlikely to amount to a complete rollback of restrictions as hoped by Washington, industry insiders said.

The Ministry of Commerce told some rare earth exporters they will be able to apply for new streamlined permits in the future and in industry briefings outlined the documents that will be required, two sources familiar with the matter said. (Reuters – Continue Reading)

Federal Reserve officials had to make their latest interest-rate decision without key economic statistics thanks to the US government shutdown. The data they will receive when the government reopens probably won’t make the next decision any easier.

Friday marks the second month without a national employment report since federal agencies publishing economic data went dark. Even if the government were to reopen soon, post-shutdown numbers would be compiled based on surveys conducted retroactively, making them less reliable. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

Warnings about ‘irrational exuberance’ are everywhere all at once. In recent weeks, several chief executives of major US banks have raised red flags, echoed swiftly by central banks from London to Washington. The International Monetary Fund has added its own cautionary note, and the financial media have chimed in almost unanimously. The Economist sounded the alarm over the weekend, the World Economic Forum’s chair weighed in, and found bubble talk irresistible. So, no one can claim that investors have not been warned.

Alan Greenspan’s famous phrase ‘irrational exuberance’ dates back to 1996 – a full four years before the dot-com bubble actually burst. True, Nasdaq valuations today look demanding, but comparisons to the late 1990s go only so far. Back then, policy errors surrounding the ‘Y2K bug’ and cheap liquidity helped inflate a speculative frenzy. Today’s dynamic is different. The surge in technology spending is driven not by hype but by geopolitics – a modern replay of the 1960s, after the Sputnik launch sparked a global race for technological supremacy. The current wave of investment in AI and digital infrastructure may prove equally transformative. (Julius Baer – Continue Reading)