US Briefing - Monday 11.08
Headlines
  • Economists Eye Tariff-Driven Price Gains in July's US CPI Data
  • China Urges Firms Not To Use Nvidia H20 Chips In New Guidance
  • Trump Picks Heritage Economist Antoni To Lead US BLS
  • Fed Chair Search Expands To Include Bowman, Jefferson And Logan
  • German Investor Confidence Sinks As Costs Of Trade Deal Hit Home
  • UK Unemployment Remains At Four-Year-High As Vacancies Shrink
  • Rising UK Food Sales Driven By Inflation Not Demand, BRC Says
  • RBA Delivers Third Rate Cut, Says Future Moves Hinge On Data
  • Trump Says Gold Imports Won’t Be Tariffed In Reprieve For Market
  • Nikkei Rips To All-Time High As China-US Pause Continues
  • Trump Praises Intel's CEO, Days After Calling For Him To Resign
  • Musk Accuses Apple Of Unfairly Favouring OpenAI On iPhone
  • Merck KGaA Plans $4B Bond Sale to Fund SpringWorks Acquisition
Commentary
Economists Eye Tariff-Driven Price Gains in July's US CPI Data

Headline inflation is forecast to rise in July as tariff-induced price pressures become more apparent, experts say.

Economists expect the annual headline CPI to rise 2.8% y/y in July, up from 2.7% in June. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to edge up to 3.0% y/y from 2.9%. On a monthly basis, the headline rate is seen slowing to 0.2% from 0.3%, while core inflation is expected to quicken to 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in June.

(Continue Reading – LS)

German Investor Outlook Falls After EU, US Bury Trade Hatchet

FRANKFURT – Investors in Germany were less upbeat about the country’s prospects following the handshake trade agreement between Brussels and Washington late last month.

The ZEW thinktank said Tuesday that its August expectations indicator for Germany in the coming half-year fell for the first time in four months with a decline to 34.7 points. This was worse than the market forecast of 39.5 and far below last month’s 52.7 mark, the best showing since Russia attacked Ukraine.

The ZEW said its current conditions indicator declined to rise to -68.6 versus the -67.0 estimate and -59.5 in July.

(Continue Reading – LS)

UK’s Labor Market Continues To Loosen

The UK’s jobs market continued to cool in the second quarter as businesses grappled with an increase in employment taxes, uncertainty about the outlook for trade, and cautious consumers.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in the three months to June, from 4.5% in January to March, while the number of workers on payrolls fell by 26,000 between May and June, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday.

(Continue Reading – WSJ)

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/*jshint esversion: 6 */ var socket; var assigned_server = 3001; var distributor_server = 3010; var publisher_channel = ''; var broadcaster_channel = ''; var remote_ip = ''; var session_info = {}; var logging_interval; var logging_interval_time = 120000; var socket_emits = 0; var session_start_time; var reconnectionDelayGrowFactor = 1.2; var reconnection_delay = 1000; var playing = false; var connected_to_assigned = false; var socket_close_timeout; var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay = 1500; var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null; const TOKEN_ENDPOINT = "https://www.livesquawk.com/api/get_token.php"; self.onmessage = function (msg) { switch(msg.data.action) { case 'Reactivate': reactivate(); break; case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break; case 'SessionStaticInfo': session_static_info(msg); break; case 'SessionInfo': update_session_info(msg.data); break; case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break; case 'RestartLogging': postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionStaticInfo' }); break; case 'JoinPublisherChannel': join_publisher_channel(msg.data); break; case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break; case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break; case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break; case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break; case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break; case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break; case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break; case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break; case 'GetConnectionState': checkSocketConnectionState(); break; } }; function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear() { clearTimeout(player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout); player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null; } function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start() { player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = setTimeout(function() { send_play_disconnect_annoucement(); }, player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay ); } function send_play_disconnect_annoucement() { postMessage({action: "PlayDisconnectAnnoucement"}); } function reactivate() { playing = false; connect_to_assigned_server(); } function player_log_response(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'PlayerLogResponse'; data_array.respond_to_socket_final = data.respond_to_socket_final; data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket; data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id; data_array.logs = data.logs; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function request_message_search(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_message_search'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.search_term = data.search_term; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function request_more_messages(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_more_messages'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function check_channel_status(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'check_channel_status'; data_array.app_name = data.app_name; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1 && connected_to_assigned) { socket.send(msg_string); } else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); } } function check_channel_status_response(data) { postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected }); } async function join_publisher_channel(data) { if (typeof data.jwt_token === 'string' && data.jwt_token !== '') { if (!socket || socket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN) { console.warn("[Page worker] JWT join skipped: socket not open"); return; } socket.send(JSON.stringify({ type: "join_publisher_channel", jwt_token: data.jwt_token, publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel, username: data.username, subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group, display_name: data.display_name, single_sign_on: data.single_sign_on, remote_ip: data.remote_ip, http_referrer: data.http_referrer, current_page: data.current_page, php_session_id: data.php_session_id, from_react: data.from_react, ...(typeof data.api_key === "string" && data.api_key.trim() !== "" ? { api_key: data.api_key } : {}), })); console.log("[Page worker] Sent supplied JWT join"); postMessage({ action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' }); return; } const joinSocket = socket; if (!joinSocket || joinSocket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN) { return; } const apiKey = typeof data.api_key === "string" ? data.api_key.trim() : ""; const partnerName = partnerFromCurrentPage(data.current_page); let tokenBody; if (apiKey !== "") { tokenBody = { api_key: apiKey }; } else if (partnerName) { tokenBody = { partner_name: partnerName }; } else { tokenBody = { username: data.username || "", publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel || "", }; } let jwtToken = null; try { const requestStartedAt = Date.now(); const response = await fetch(TOKEN_ENDPOINT, { method: "POST", headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" }, body: JSON.stringify(tokenBody), credentials: "same-origin", cache: "no-store", }); if (!response.ok) { throw new Error(`token endpoint returned ${response.status}`); } const tokenData = await response.json(); if ( !tokenData || typeof tokenData.token !== "string" || tokenData.token === "" ) { throw new Error("token endpoint returned no token"); } const expiresIn = Number(tokenData.expires_in); if (!Number.isFinite(expiresIn) || expiresIn <= 0) { throw new Error("token endpoint returned an invalid lifetime"); } const expiresAt = requestStartedAt + (expiresIn * 1000); if (expiresAt <= Date.now() + 30000) { throw new Error("token response has insufficient remaining lifetime"); } jwtToken = tokenData.token; } catch (error) { console.warn("[Page worker] Token request failed", error); // API-key requests must not silently bypass token authentication. if (apiKey !== "") { postMessage({ action: "auth_failed" }); return; } } // A reconnect during the fetch makes this join attempt obsolete. if ( socket !== joinSocket || joinSocket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN ) { return; } const payload = { type: "join_publisher_channel", publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel, username: data.username, subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group, display_name: data.display_name, single_sign_on: data.single_sign_on, remote_ip: data.remote_ip, http_referrer: data.http_referrer, current_page: data.current_page, php_session_id: data.php_session_id, from_react: data.from_react, }; if (apiKey !== "") { payload.api_key = apiKey; } if (jwtToken) { payload.jwt_token = jwtToken; } console.log( jwtToken ? "[Page worker] Sending fetched JWT with legacy details" : "[Page worker] Sending legacy join without JWT" ); joinSocket.send(JSON.stringify(payload)); postMessage({ action: "PublisherChannelJoined" }); } function partnerFromCurrentPage(current_page) { try { if (!current_page) return ''; const fullUrl = current_page.startsWith('http') ? current_page : `https://${current_page}`; return new URL(fullUrl).searchParams.get('partner_name') || ''; } catch (e) { return ''; } } function session_static_info(msg) { set_static_session_info(msg.data); start_log(); } function connect_to_distributor(msg) { publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel; remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip; socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); switch(data.type) { case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break; } }; } function session_info_interval() { postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' }); logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time); } function server_assignment_response(data) { assigned_server = data.selected_server; socket.close(); connect_to_assigned_server(); } function request_server_assignment() { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment'; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function connect_to_assigned_server() { socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server }); console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server); postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' }); connected_to_assigned = true; if (playing) { postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' }); } }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ } switch(data.type) { case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break; case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break; case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break; case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break; case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break; case 'player_log_request': case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break; case 'PlayerLogRequest': case 'new_tweet': case 'new_latest_news': case 'delete_report': case 'add_report': case 'add_ref_doc': case 'calendar_change': case 'calendar_insert': case 'calendar_delete': case 'new_note': case 'AppStart': case 'AppStop': case 'BroadcasterStarted': case 'BroadcasterStopped': case 'added_cme_report': case 'updated_cme_report': case 'added_cme_commentary': case 'updated_cme_commentary': case 'server_assignment_response': case 'initial_messages': case 'message_categories': case 'more_messages': case 'matched_messages': pass_straight_to_post_message(data); break; case 'output': case 'server_ping': case 'reconnect': case 'disconnect': break; } }; socket.onerror = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type }); console.log(event); postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' }); }; socket.onclose = function(event) { console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason); socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay); reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor; connected_to_assigned = false; }; } function checkSocketConnectionState() { postMessage({ action: 'SocketConnectionState', connected: Boolean(socket && socket.readyState === WebSocket.OPEN && connected_to_assigned ), }); } function close_socket() { clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout); socket_close_timeout = null; socket.onclose = function(event) {}; socket.onmessage = function(event) {}; socket.onerror = function(event) {}; socket.close(1000); console.log('Socket Closed'); } function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) { data.action = data.type; postMessage(data); } function join_player_channel(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'join_player_channel'; data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel; data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; data_array.username = data.username; data_array.app_name = data.app_name; data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status; data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; data_array.current_page = data.current_page; data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' }); playing = true; } function start_log_response(data) { session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id; session_info_interval(); } function application_refresh_start(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); } } function application_refresh_stop(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); } } function set_static_session_info(data) { session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename; session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name; session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent; session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version; session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled; session_info.platform = data.platform; session_info.player_version = data.player_version; session_info.stream = data.stream; session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol; session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target; session_info.session_email = data.session_email; session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; session_info.application_name = data.application_name; session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; } function start_log() { var session_start_date = new Date(); session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime(); var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec']; var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear(); var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log'; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.username = session_info.session_email; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.webrtc_protocol = ''; data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0); data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream; data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function update_session_info(data) { var data_array = {}; var msg_string = ''; var current_date = new Date(); var current_time = current_date.getTime(); session_info.protocol = data.protocol; session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2); session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time; session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time; session_info.jitter = data.jitter; session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss; session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency; session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score; session_info.restarts = data.restarts; if (socket_emits == 0) { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full'; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename; data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name; data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent; data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version; data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled; data_array.platform = session_info.platform; data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.delay_target = 0; data_array.op_sys = ''; data_array.flash_version = ''; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } else { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data'; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } socket_emits++; if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; } }