German ZEW Investor Outlook Set For Rise

- Forward-looking measure forecast at 32.0 (prev 29.9)

- Current environment gauge expected to slip to -7.5 (prev -7.4)

- Record coronavirus cases stoke concerns

- Data due Tuesday at 10:00 GMT

 

By Eric Culp, European Editor

LiveSquawk News

@EricCulpLS

17 January 2022 | 09:25 GMT

 

FRANKFURT – The results of the ZEW thinktank’s first survey of 2022 is likely to show investors and financial market experts expressing more optimism about the near future in Europe’s largest economy and just a touch fewer expectations about its present.

 

A poll of economists says the ZEW’s economic sentiment index – a gauge for the next six months – is set to rise to 32.0 after last month’s small decline to 29.9. The current conditions indicator is forecast to continue its slide with a decrease to -7.5 from -7.4 in December. For comparison, this reading started the fourth quarter at 21.6.

 

Tuesday’s ZEW survey results come on the heels of last week’s release of investor sentiment indicators by Germany’s Sentix, whose poll results showed a sideways move for the outlook after three consecutive increases and an upturn in the current environment indicator following four straight declines.

 

Nomura cited the Sentix results when predicting the outcome of this month’s ZEW poll. “The ZEW tends to follow similar trajectories for both components, which explains our forecasts for a recovery in current conditions and a similar reading on expectations.”

 

Oxford Economics said, “In line with the upside surprise seen […] in the Sentix indicator, we expect a moderate improvement in the headline ZEW index as financial markets seem optimistic that the economy will weather the current surge in infections.

 

“However, the market’s buoyancy might prove too confident as infection rates continue to climb at a rapid pace. We expect economic activity to be weighed down by absenteeism due to isolation rules as well as voluntary social distancing during January, although given its rapid spread the current pandemic wave will likely turn out to be severe but short-lived.”

 

German managers less optimistic

Results of a Price Waterhouse Cooper poll released Monday said 76% of German business leaders reported that they expect the global economy to improve this year, a decline from 80% last year. More concerning is that 19% said worldwide business activity will contract this year, which was up from 11% for 2020.

 

Polling by Germany’s Ifo Institute has seen business confidence fall over the past six months.

 

Covid-19 continues to spread in Germany, with the rate of infection hitting a single-day record of more than 92,000 last week, according to the country’s Robert Koch Institute. Hospitalisations, while not as high as during previous waves of the virus, remain a point of concern as less than half of Germans have received a booster vaccination. More that 72% of residents are double-jabbed.

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