European Briefing - Friday 11.09
Headlines
  • GOP Senators: Covid-19 Stimulus Deal Dead Until After Election
  • US Pres Trump: There Will Be No Extension Of TikTok Deadline
  • BoC’s Macklem: Will Maintain Extraordinary Stimulus Measures
  • Some ECB Officials Pushed For More Optimistic Economic View
  • EU Gives UK 20 Days To Back Down On Brexit Withdrawal Bill
  • Times: More Than 30 Tory MPs Preparing A New Brexit Revolt
  • France Virus Cases Rise By c.10K; Most Since End Of Lockdown
  • Fed B/S Steady At $7.01T; Portugal Back On UK Quarantine List
  • India & China Have Agreed To Not Escalate The Border Situation
  • Japan's Motegi: Aim To Reach Broad Trade Deal With UK Today
  • Japan's Suga: No Need To Raise Sales Tax In The Next Decade
  • NZ August House Prices Rise; Mfg PMI Falls To 50.7 (prev 59.0)
  • NHC: Rene & Paulette Forecast To Be Hurricanes This Weekend
  • Saudi Aramco Has Raised Domestic Fuel Prices For September
  • Boeing In Talks With The FAA About A New 787 Production Issue
  • Bayer CEO Term Extended To 2024; Oracle Q4 Adj EPS Beats
  • Rio Tinto CEO To Leave; Lufthansa Set To Shed Biggest Planes
Commentary
Dozens Of Tory MPs Prepare New Brexit Revolt

Boris Johnson is facing a revolt by up to 30 Tory MPs over plans that would break international law and allow him to renege on parts of his Brexit deal. The rebels have tabled an amendment that would bar the government from overriding the withdrawal agreement without parliament’s support.

 

The government is also facing opposition from peers. Lord Howard of Lympne, a prominent Brexiteer, became the third former Tory leader to reject the plans, warning that they would damage Britain’s global standing.

 

Lord Lamont of Lerwick, a former chancellor and another Brexiteer, said there was “no way” that the legislation, which would allow ministers to override elements of the withdrawal agreement, would pass through the Lords.

(Times – Continue Reading)

Goldman Now Sees A 35% Jump In Q3 GDP

Goldman Sachs economists said they see third quarter GDP growth tracking at 35%, driven in large part by the surprising strength of consumer spending. Goldman said its tracking forecast is now 14 percentage points ahead of the Wall Street consensus, and it sees the consumer contributing 12 points of that gap.

 

“Following the sharp rise in spending in late spring and early summer, the virus resurgence and the surprise fiscal tightening threatened a reversal. But spending instead rose strongly in July, and four high-frequency measures indicate a further 1-2% increase in real spending in August,” the economists wrote.

 

They said they included  a 1.25% increase in August consumption in their GDP forecast, while the Atlanta Fed GDP Now, for instance, sees a decline in consumption. “This aggregate increase conceals a decline among unemployment benefit recipients, where Cardify data show August spending down 8% relative to July on average.”

(CNBC - Continue Reading)

Some ECB Officials Pushed For More Optimistic Economic View

Read Our LiveSquawk Reaction Here

Some European Central Bank officials wanted President Christine Lagarde to take a more optimistic view on the economy in her remarks following the Governing Council’s meeting on Thursday, according to people familiar with the discussion.

 

Those officials suggested describing the recovery so far from the pandemic-induced recession as a bit better than anticipated, the people said. The final statement said the euro-area’s economic performance has been “broadly in line with previous expectations.”

 

France’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau was particularly upbeat about the outlook for his economy, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations were confidential. Spokesmen for the ECB and Bank of France declined to comment. The Governing Council’s discussion took place in the context of mixed signals on the economy. 

(Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

La Nina Upheaval To Roil Global Food Production, Prices

The La Nina weather system could roil global food production, sending prices higher, as potential droughts and floods bring upheaval to a suite of key agricultural commodities from Southeast Asia to South America.

 

The highly anticipated phenomenon has officially formed, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday, after the last significant La Nina event occurred in 2011. During that period, upheaval in commodity production led to steep increase in world food prices, with the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture World Food Price Index surging to a record in February 2011, up 37% from the end of 2009.

 

La Nina typically affects a broad range of farm commodities, as it brings above-average winter-spring rainfall in Australia, particularly across eastern, central and northern regions, as well as in Southeast Asia, with the potential for flooding. It can also dry out the southern U.S. through winter, bringing cooler temperatures and storms across the north. 

(Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

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