Closing Wrap - Friday 08.01
Headlines
  • Biden Push For New Stimulus Checks Runs Into Roadblock From Manchin
  • Biden Will Release All Available Vaccine Doses In Break From Trump Admin. Policy
  • Pelosi Urges Top US General To Block Trump From Nuclear Codes
  • DoJ: Trump Not Expected To Be Criminally Charged With Inciting Capitol Riot
  • Fed’s Clarida Sees Brighter Economic Outlook Despite Virus Surge
  • UK's Gove: Trade Issues In N.Ireland Will Get Worse Before Improving
  • UK Reports Highest Daily COVID-19 Death Toll Since Start Of The Pandemic
  • Germany Secured 50 Mln Vaccine Doses From CureVac, BioNTech
  • Pfizer, BioNTech Shot May Defeat New Variants, Study Shows
  • Tesla Extends Record Winning Streak After Evercore Capitulates
  • Ford To Idle Plant Next Week Amid Global Microchip Shortage
  • Airbus Deliveries Fell 34% To 566 Jets In 2020
Commentary
Nonfarm Payrolls Reaction - Dec 2020

-140k

The headline number came in much lower than the consensus estimate of a gain of 50k. The prior print was revised higher to 336k from 245k.

 

6.7%

Unemployment printed a tenth lower than the forecast of 6.8%, which was unchanged from November’s reading. The participation rate also remained the same at 61.5%.

 

+0.8%

Average hourly earnings m/m were much higher than estimates of 0.2%. The prior month came in unchanged at 0.3%. (LiveSquawk - Continue Reading)

Top US Banks’ Tax Bill Would Rise $11 Bln With Biden Hike

After three years of savings, top U.S. banks could face an increased tax bill of as much as $11 billion a year if President-elect Joe Biden moves forward with corporate rate hikes he campaigned on.

 

That would follow $42 billion of savings by the six biggest banks thanks to outgoing President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which have boosted their bottom line by more than 10% over the past three years.

 

While the tax hike -- which is probable, though not assured, given Democrats’ narrow control of Congress -- would hurt bank earnings, other measures taken by the incoming administration could help counter the increase. Further fiscal stimulus to boost an economic recovery, causing borrowing costs to rise slightly, would be a positive for banks weighed down by historically narrow interest rate margins.

 

“A tax increase would be a very concrete negative for banks,” said Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo & Co. “But you have to think of low interest rates as an implicit tax on banks, and that’s much bigger than the impact of potential tax-rate hikes. So anything that pushes rates up is good for banks.” (Bloomberg - Continue Reading)

2020 Retail Imports May Break Record Despite Pandemic

Imports seen during 2020 appear to be headed toward a new record despite the coronavirus pandemic, and remain at high levels as 2021 begins, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

 

“Nobody would have thought last spring that 2020 would be a record year for imports, but it was clearly an unpredictable year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Consumers and retailers once again proved their resilience in the face of unprecedented challenges. Thanks in part to government stimulus, retail sales saw strong growth during 2020 even with the pandemic, and import numbers show retailers expect the economic recovery will continue during 2021.” (National Retail Federation - Continue Reading)

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