The labour market in the world’s largest economy is poised to exhibit renewed strength on Friday as more American states lift pandemic restrictions on businesses.

February’s non-farm payrolls are expected to show a jump of 180,000 versus the 49,000 increase in January, according to an economists’ poll. The unemployment rate likely held steady at 6.3% last month, the poll predicted.

“We expect positive employment growth but not a significant rebound, so overall employment will remain subdued,” Danske Bank said. “Restrictions have been eased gradually but the pandemic is not over.”

Private payrolls in the US increased by 117,000 in February, ADP reported Wednesday, a number that was well short of analysts' expectations of a rise of more than 200,000. (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)

Interest rates are low, and “lower for longer” has become something of a mantra among policy makers, regulators, and other market watchers. But negative interest rates raise an entirely new set of questions.

After eight years of experience with negative interest rate policies, the initial skepticism (paying interest to borrowers rather than savers was certainly unprecedented) has proven largely misplaced. The evidence so far suggests that negative interest policies have worked. (IMF – Continue Reading)

A huge rebound in consumer spending sparked the recovery that began in mid-2020, but in recent months demand has rotated toward business spending. We estimate global consumer spending gains slowed sharply last quarter and they are tracking a weak start to the new year. Meanwhile, gains in business capex and spending on inventories have remained robust. If we are right, global demand is poised to rotate back toward consumption. Following an expected modest 1.9% ar gain this quarter we look for global consumption to surge at an 8.5% ar in the middle quarters of the year, providing a key impetus for an expected 7.6% ar gain in global GDP (Figure 1). (JPMorgan – Continue Reading)