US Briefing - Thursday 23.06
Headlines
  • EU’s Top Economies Slow Significantly As Manufacturing Cools
  • UK Economy 'Running On Empty' As Recession Signals Mount
  • UK Consumer Spending Softens, Job Ads Fall In Past Week
  • British Parliament To Debate NI Protocol Bill On Monday
  • Norway Central Bank Makes Largest Rate Hike In 20 Years
  • Leaping Debt Costs Add To UK Government Borrowing In May
  • Westpac Expect RBA To Hike By Half-Point At Next Two Meetings
  • Xi Vows To Meet Growth Target That Analysts Say Is Out Of Reach
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield Slips To Lowest Level In Nearly Two Weeks
  • Foreigners Bail Out Of Japan Bonds At Record Pace On BoJ Policy
  • Euro Falls After Weak PMIs Weigh; Norway's Crown Shines
  • A Retreat In Oil Prices As Investors Reassess Recession Risks
  • EU Power Soars To Six-Month High On Germany Gas Supply Alert
  • Qatar To Demand EU Sign Long-Term LNG Deals If It Wants More Gas
  • Futures Up Ahead Of Powell Testimony, EU Stocks Pare Loses
Commentary
German Ifo Business Conf. Forecast A Touch Lower With Growth Concerns On The Rise

Optimism among German managers is expected to fade this month amid blistering inflation, central bank rate hikes, a war, and the rising threat of recession in Europe's largest economy and beyond.

 

A survey of economists predicted that headline business climate index would ease to 92.8 points from 93.0 in May.

 

The index's expectations component - a measure for the coming six months - was expected to increase to 87.5 from 86.9 in May. The current conditions component forecast slightly lower at 99.0 versus 99.5 last month. (Continue Reading - LiveSquawk)

Germany Triggers Gas Alarm Stage, Accuses Russia Of 'Economic Attack'

Germany triggered the "alarm stage" of its emergency gas plan on Thursday in response to falling Russian supplies but stopped short of allowing utilities to pass on soaring energy costs to customers in Europe's largest economy.

 

The measure is the latest escalation in a standoff between Europe and Moscow since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that has exposed the bloc's dependence on Russian gas supplies and sparked a frantic search for alternative energy sources. (Continue Reading - Reuters)

Bridgewater Doubles Bet Against European Stocks To $10.5 Billion

Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates has built a $10.5 billion bet against European companies, almost doubling its wager in the past week to its most bearish stance against the region s stocks in two years.

 

The world's biggest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets against 28 companies that include individual wagers of more than $500 million against ASML Holding NV, TotalEnergies SE, Sanofi and SAP SE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The total bet is up from $5.7 billion against 18 firms last week, the data shows.


All the companies that Bridgewater is shorting are part of the Euro Stoxx 50 index. The move comes as Euro-area economic expansion slows sharply amid surging prices. An indicator for economic activity by S&P Global fell to a 16-month low in June, driven by rampant inflation, concerns over energy and rising borrowing costs. (Continue Reading - Bloomberg)

ING: How To Price A Recession

So have we seen a turning point? Has the 10yr peaked at 3.5%? Has the 2yr peaked as it now races back down towards 3%? The answer is probably not. For two reasons. We still think that real rates have room to rise. The 10yr is now at 60bp. Our target remains 1%. Second, the 5yr remains cheap to the curve and consistent with a bearish market. That all being said, could there be a chink of reversion here? Answer, yes. A notable move today has been a decompression of the cheapness attached to the 5yr. It now trades at about 11bp cheap to the curve (in net terms). Thats in from 14bp in the past couple of days. Thats a big move, but it has not broken the range seen in the past number of months. It has been at 9bp cheap on a few occasions in the past couple of months. If it were to break down to 9bp and keep going, wed really start to question whether weve seen the peak already. (Continue Reading – ING)

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} function join_publisher_channel(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'join_publisher_channel'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.username = data.username; data_array.subscriber_group = data.subscriber_group; data_array.display_name = data.display_name; data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on; data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; data_array.current_page = data.current_page; data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' }); } function session_static_info(msg) { set_static_session_info(msg.data); start_log(); } function connect_to_distributor(msg) { publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel; remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip; socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); switch(data.type) { case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break; } }; } function session_info_interval() { postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' }); logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time); } function server_assignment_response(data) { assigned_server = data.selected_server; socket.close(); connect_to_assigned_server(); } function request_server_assignment() { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment'; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function connect_to_assigned_server() { socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server }); console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server); 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break; case 'output': case 'server_ping': case 'reconnect': case 'disconnect': break; } }; socket.onerror = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type }); console.log(event); postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' }); }; socket.onclose = function(event) { console.log('Socket is closed. 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var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' }); playing = true; } function start_log_response(data) { session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id; session_info_interval(); } function application_refresh_start(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); } } function application_refresh_stop(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); } } function set_static_session_info(data) { session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename; session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name; session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent; session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version; session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled; session_info.platform = data.platform; session_info.player_version = data.player_version; session_info.stream = data.stream; session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol; session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target; session_info.session_email = data.session_email; session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; session_info.application_name = data.application_name; session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; } function start_log() { var session_start_date = new Date(); session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime(); var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec']; var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear(); var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log'; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.username = session_info.session_email; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.webrtc_protocol = ''; data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0); data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream; data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function update_session_info(data) { var data_array = {}; var msg_string = ''; var current_date = new Date(); var current_time = current_date.getTime(); session_info.protocol = data.protocol; session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2); session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time; session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time; session_info.jitter = data.jitter; session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss; session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency; session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score; session_info.restarts = data.restarts; if (socket_emits == 0) { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full'; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename; data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name; data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent; data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version; data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled; data_array.platform = session_info.platform; data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.delay_target = 0; data_array.op_sys = ''; data_array.flash_version = ''; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } else { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data'; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } socket_emits++; if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; } }