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Livesquawk - US Briefing - Friday 19.11
US Briefing - Friday 19.11
Headlines
  • ECB Tightening Bets May Soon Become A Thing Of The Past
  • Brussels Step Toward On Penalty Process With Poland, Hungary
  • Germany Not Ruling Out Lockdown, Even For The Vaccinated
  • UK Retail Sales Rebound After Longest Ever Run Of Declines
  • UK Brexit Minster Frost: Article 16 Remains On The Table
  • Austria Will Enter Fourth Lockdown, Compulsory Covid Vaccinations
  • Treasury Yields Fall As Investors Eye Fed Chair Decision
  • Covid Lockdown Risk Fuels Bond Rally; German 30-Yr Yield Back Below 0%
  • Dollar On Track For Fourth Straight Weekly Gain As Euro Flags
  • Oil drops below $80 On Growing European Covid-19 Concerns
  • Gold Steadies As Inflation Risks Buoy Safe-Haven Appeal
  • European Stocks Slide As Lockdown Worries Resurface
  • China's Land Sales Slump For 4th Month As Property Woes Worsen
Commentary
Euro Could Be Facing A Dark Winter With Options Traders Spooked

Markets are increasingly nervous about the common currency with the pandemic resurgent, geopolitical tensions rising and gas supply issues mounting. Risk reversals in the euro-Swiss franc pair fell below parity on Nov. 1 for the first time in almost a year -- coinciding with a jump in one-month euro-dollar GARCH, a statistical modelling technique that helps predict the volatility of financial assets. Then, this week, that cross dropped to a six-year low. 

 

But it was euro-dollar pair’s breach of the psychological 1.15 level on Nov. 10 that appears to have really spooked options accounts. Euro options turnover has remained elevated since then, driven by higher realized volatility and short-dated put demand as downward momentum exposes trading barriers. (Continue Reading – Bloomberg)

UK Retail Sales Buck Downtrend Just In Time For Christmas

UK retailers received a timely boost ahead of one of the busiest periods of the year as sales grew for the first time in nearly six months in October.

 

Retail sales showed a monthly growth rate of 0.8% to beat the 0.5% market estimate and September’s -0.2%. Annual sales of -1.3% compared to -1.9% consensus and the previous month’s -0.6%.

 

Retail sales excluding fuel were also elevated in October. On the month, sales grew 1.6%, which was well above the 0.6% forecast and September’s revised -0.4% print. Sales fell by 1.9% year-on-year, less than the expected 2.8% drop and in-line with the prior month.

 

The Office for National Statistics said October’s figures reflected a mixed picture of consumer spending. It noted that non-food stores were the only main retail sector with a rise in sales volumes – increasing 4.2% – partly due to growth at outlets selling second-hand goods, toys, sports equipment, and clothing. (Continue Reading – LiveSquawk)

Biden's Overture To Asian Oil Consumers Warning To OPEC+

The Biden administration's push for a coordinated release of oil stockpiles serves as a warning to the OPEC+ production group that it should pump more oil to address concerns of high fuel prices in powerhouse economies like the United States, China and others.

 

For weeks, the White House and administration officials had urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia to accelerate production increases to satisfy demand as the global economy rebounds from the depths of the pandemic.

 

After those pleas were rebuffed, the Biden administration hatched a different plan to keep pressuring OPEC+ ahead of its Dec. 2 meeting on oil output policy. (Continue Reading – Reuters)

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