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Livesquawk - US Briefing - Monday 04.10
US Briefing - Monday 04.10
Headlines
  • Doomsday US Debt Clock Ticking, With No Congressional Plan
  • Progressives Offering To Cut Spending Short To Save Biden Plan
  • FT - Biden Official: Protecting US Steel A National Security Issue
  • USTR Tai To Press China On Trade Pact & Keep Tariffs In Place
  • ECB's De Guindos: Supply Constraints A Structural Driver In CPI
  • EZ Oct. Sentix Investor Confidence Misses, Hits A 6 Month Low
  • Final Terms For EUR2B ESM Dec. 2024 Bond Tap: MS -13bps
  • SPD Wants 3-Way Coalition Talks; Would-Be Partners Hold Off
  • Turkish Sep. Inflation Accelerates Amid A Surge In Energy Costs
  • UK's Frost: Triggering Article 16 May Be Only Way To Protect UK
  • UK's Sunak Boosts Jobs Funding Plan As UK Braces For Winter
  • UK's Sunak Cites He Can’t Rule Out Any Further Tax Increases
  • Kishida To Take Office As Japan PM, Hold Election On Oct. 31
  • Japan Appoints Its First New FinMin, Suzuki, In Nearly 9 Years
  • WSJ: Fed Is Preparing To Launch Review Of A Possible CBDC
  • RTRS: OPEC+ Seen Keeping Its Oil Output Policy Unchanged
  • NYT: J&J To Ask FDA This Week To Authorize Its Covid Booster
  • Tesla’s Vehicle Deliveries Hit Record In Q3, Beating Estimates
  • Adidas Tumbles As BoFA Cuts To Underperform From Neutral
  • BT Drops; Sky Nears Broadband Deal With Virgin Media's O2
  • Morrisons Sale: CD&R Wins GBP7B Auction For Supermarket
  • GT: Evergrande Set To Raise USD5B From Property Unit Sale
Commentary
Progressives Offer To Cut Spending Short To Save Biden Plan

House progressives looking for ways to rescue President Joe Biden’s stalled domestic agenda opened the door to scaling back some of the more ambitious social spending by having those programs expire rather than be permanent.  “One of the ideas out there is to fully fund what we can fully fund, but instead of funding it for 10 years, fund it for five years,” said Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat and leading progressive voice, on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”  Democrats are looking for ways out of their deadlock three days after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi scuttled a planned vote on a $550 billion infrastructure package. She retreated as progressives balked at a standalone bill without the $3.5 trillion social safety-net spending and tax increases they want.

 

Progressives say they’re willing to compromise on that number — within limits. The chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus flatly rejected Senator Joe Manchin’s offer of $1.5 trillion in social spending. “That’s not going to happen,” Representative Pramila Jayapal, a Washington State Democrat, told CNN’s “State of the Nation” on Sunday. “Because that’s too small to get our priorities in. So, it’s going to be somewhere between $1.5 and $3.5. And I think the White House is working on that right now, because, remember, what we want to deliver is child care, paid leave, climate change, housing.”

(Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

Doomsday Clock For US Debt Ticks, With No Congressional Plan

The US is moving closer to its first-ever default, with neither political party in Washington yet signalling it’s ready to back down from a partisan showdown on the federal debt limit. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer plans another vote as early as Monday on a measure passed by the House to suspend the federal government’s legal debt limit until December 2022. But his Republican counterpart, Mitch McConnell, vows to block the attempt, for the third time running. The risk is rising that political miscalculation and byzantine congressional procedures could tip the U.S. into an outcome that practically no one on Wall Street or Washington expects. President Joe Biden plans to speak on Monday on the need for Congress to address the debt ceiling.

 

“The consensus (from clients to whom we speak) is that it just will not happen,” Barclays Plc analysts including Shawn Golhar, head of public policy research, wrote in a note. “But political schisms in Congress are stronger than they have been in a long time and battle lines more hardened.” “The worry has already begun, to be quite honest,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, senior U.S. interest rates strategist at TD Securities. Without a clear legislative path by the end of this week, “I think the market would get very worried,” he said.

(Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

OPEC+ In Control Of Oil Market As Ministers Meet Again

Source: OPEC

OPEC+ remains very much in control of the oil market as ministers gather for their monthly meeting.  Crude is trading just below $80 a barrel in London, the highest in almost three years, and the cartel’s production policy will be the main factor influencing prices in the coming months, according to oil trader Vitol Group. Saudi Arabia is sitting pretty, with output close to pre-pandemic levels, the highest petroleum revenues since 2018 and its fellow members united behind the plan to collectively revive 400,000 barrels a day of idle production each month. Washington is also satisfied with that pace of supply hikes, according to a U.S. official who asked not to be named. 

 

OPEC+ is likely to stick to its plan today, said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst and co-founder of consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. As long as prices are between $70 and $80 a barrel, “the urgency to act beyond the current deal is limited.” The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies head into Monday’s video conference on a remarkably stable footing after more than a year of tumult. The internal conflicts brought on by the pandemic -- from a vicious price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia to arguments between Gulf allies over production quotas -- seem like distant memories. 

(Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

Read Also: OPEC+ Seen Keeping Oil Output Policy Unchanged - RTRS

Central Bankers Down Under Set To Keep Rate Down Low

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to reiterate monetary policy and interest rates when its board meets Tuesday as the country-continent continues to struggle with the spread of the coronavirus. Suffering yet another wave of Covid-19 cases, much of the country remains under strict lockdown. This has dampened the momentum of the recovery, with analysts speculating that the Australian economy has contracted an estimated 3.2% since Q2. As stated in the RBA’s 7 September minutes, business investment and the labour market strengthened in the second quarter as unemployment fell.

 

The delay in economic growth caused by the spread of the Delta variant had the RBA maintain its dovish stance and hold interest rates at 0.10% at its last meeting. The only alterations were the extension of the weekly bond-buying programme by three months, with the amount lowered to AUD 4 Bln from AUD 5 Bln. With the environment still little changed from last time around, analysts say investors should expect more of the same this week when it comes to policy. RBA announcements appear to be closely shadowing those from the Fed, with Nomura economist Andrew Ticehurst observing that based on recent comments from US central bankers and their last rate meeting, “We expect the Fed to cease asset purchases by mid-2022, and the RBA to do the same around mid-late 2022. It will likely, and deliberately, lag the Fed a little.”

(LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)

RBA Preview: Central Bankers Down Under Set To Keep Rate Down Low

03 October 2021 | 21:30 GMT 

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to reiterate monetary policy and interest rates when its board meets Tuesday as the country-continent continues to struggle with the spread of the coronavirus.

 

Suffering yet another wave of Covid-19 cases, much of the country remains under strict lockdown. This has dampened the momentum of the recovery, with analysts speculating that the Australian economy has contracted an estimated 3.2% since Q2. As stated in the RBA’s 7 September minutes, business investment and the labour market strengthened in the second quarter as unemployment fell.

 

The delay in economic growth caused by the spread of the Delta variant had the RBA maintain its dovish stance and hold interest rates at 0.10% at its last meeting. The only alterations were the extension of the weekly bond-buying programme by three months, with the amount lowered to AUD 4 Bln from AUD 5 Bln. With the environment still little changed from last time around, analysts say investors should expect more of the same this week when it comes to policy. Continue Reading 

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