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Livesquawk - US Briefing - Tuesday 04.05
US Briefing - Tuesday 04.05
  • FDA To OK Pfizer Vaccine For Adolescents By Early Next Week
  • Italy Mulls Boosting Tax Benefits For Buying Loss-Making Banks
  • UK PM Predicts Lockdown Ending June 21 As He Seeks Votes
  • UK's Truss: UK, India To Start Full Trade Deal Talks In Autumn
  • Poll Gives UK's Tories 17-Point Lead In Hartlepool By-Election
  • UK March Mortgage Lending Misses But Up By Most On Record
  • UK PMIs: Manufacturing Growth Hits A 27-Year High In April
  • Prof Ferguson: Threat Of Devastating 3rd UK Covid Wave Fallen
  • Riksbank’s Ingves: Inflation On Way To 2% Even If Bumpy Ride
  • China Tensions Spill Over As EU Moves Toward Biden’s Side
  • Italy Minister: Recovery Plan Hinges On Private Sector Boost
  • Australia Central Bank Lifts Outlook, To Review YCC In July
  • Westpac’s Evans: Australia Budget Deficit To Narrow Sharply
  • India: Infections 'Slowing Down' As It Passes 20 Million Cases
  • Saudi Aramco Beats Q1 Profit Forecast, Keeps Its Dividend
  • Pfizer Q1 Rev. Beats; Raises FY Adj EPS, Vaccine Rev. View
  • CVS Health Q1 Rev. Adj EPS Beats; Raises FY EPS Guidance
  • Lufthansa CEO Pitches $6.6B Capital Increase To Investors
  • Infineon Warns Over Supply in ‘Booming’ Semiconductor Mkt
  • Travel Stocks Rally; EU Unveils Plans For Overseas Tourists
GBP & Scottish Elections: Little Imminent Risk Ahead

We expect the impact of the Scottish elections on GBP to be very limited. Regardless of the result, most don't expect an imminent vote on independence. Given a second referendum (if one happens) is probably years away, there's limited need for such a risk premia to be priced into sterling. GBP currently trades cheap vs EUR, also suggesting limited downside.


Scottish voters go to the polls this Thursday in what’s likely to mark another step in the push for a second referendum on independence. Here are the key things to consider: What’s being voted on? Voters are taking part in a Scottish Parliamentary election, and the key question is whether the Scottish National Party (SNP) manages to gain an outright majority. The party fell slightly short in the 2016 election, and recent polls suggest it’s a close call again. But even if the SNP fails to gain a majority this time, there is talk of some form of coalition or agreement with the Greens, which are also pro-independence. In other words, the result is likely to lead to renewed calls for a second referendum.

(ING – Continue Reading)

Australia Central Bank Lifts Outlook, To Review YCC In July

Source: RBA Media

Australia’s central bank upgraded its economic outlook and said policy makers will review its bond programs in July, while maintaining interest rates will remain at emergency levels until at least 2024. Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe kept the cash rate and three-year yield target at 0.10% on Tuesday. He said the board will decide at its July 6 meeting on a third trance of quantitative easing and whether to shift yield curve control to target the November 2024 maturity from the current April 2024 bond.


“Despite the strong recovery in economic activity, the recent CPI data confirmed that inflation pressures remain subdued,” Lowe said in a statement. “The board is prepared to undertake further bond purchases to assist with progress toward the goals of full employment and inflation. The board places a high priority on a return to full employment.” The RBA’s decision to stand still comes a week before the government delivers its annual budget that’s expected to include targeted spending to help boost jobs and spur a faster recovery. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has lined up behind Lowe’s goal of pushing the economy to full employment as quickly as possible to rekindle inflation.

(Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

Modi Fights Pressure To Lock Down India As Virus Deaths Rise

Two weeks ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on states to only consider lockdowns “as the last option.” Now everyone from his political allies to top business leaders and U.S. President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser see them as the only way to stem the world’s worst virus outbreak. The debate has been complicated by Modi’s move last year to impose a nationwide lockdown without warning, spurring a humanitarian crisis as migrant workers fled on foot to rural areas. While Modi is keen to avoid that criticism again, particularly after his Bharatiya Janata Party failed to win an election in West Bengal when votes were counted Sunday, even states run by his party are ignoring his advice.


“One of the problems is this false narrative that it’s either a full lockdown, which equates to economic disaster, or no lockdown, which is a public health disaster,” said Catherine Blish, an infectious disease specialist and global health expert at Stanford Medicine in California. “What’s happening now is a health and an economic disaster. If you have huge swaths of your population getting sick, that’s not good for your population or your economy.”

(Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

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