us oct 2017 retail sales-cpi - preview
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LAME RISE IN US RETAIL SALES SEEN IN OCT, TAME INFLATION RATE

Monday, 13 November 2017

 

U.S. retail sales are expected to have slowed in October after the September’s hurricane-driven spike, while the Inflation rate will likely continue to be tame, with only a small increase.

 

U.S. stores, restaurants and online-shopping platforms likely saw a deceleration in sales last month. Economists predict total retail sales inched up just 0.1 percent month on month in October after a 1.6 percent surge in the previous month.

 

October’s projected deceleration was likely caused by a slowdown in car sales and lower gas prices. In September, sales were primarily boosted by increased gas costs and as people replaced vehicles damaged by hurricanes Irma, Harvey and Maria that hit U.S. and its territories at the end of summer.

 

Excluding auto and gas, U.S. retail sales are expected to increase 0.3 percent m/m in October after a 0.5 percent gain in September.

 

The so-called retail sales control group, which excludes volatile autos, gasoline and construction materials, is expected to show a monthly 0.3 percent gain in October after a 0.4 percent climb in the previous month.

 

U.S. inflation likely slowed down as well in October. The average forecast is for a rise of 0.1 percent increase in consumer prices, following the September’s 0.5 percent climb, which was the largest in eight months.

 

However, September’s increase was primarily driven by a 13.1 pct surge in gasoline costs, the most since June 2009, due to the hurricane-related oil production and refinery disruptions in the Gulf Coast area.

 

The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, was quite benign at 0.1 percent in September. Analysts believe the measure increased 0.2 percent last month.

 

Year-over-year inflation is expected to hit 2 percent in October, down from September’s 2.2 percent, while the annual core figure seems likely to have remained at 1.7 percent for the sixth month in a row.

 

The official government data on October retail sales and CPI will be released on 15 November at 1330 GMT. LiveSquawk will cover both reports for its audio and prints services.

 

 

Zuzana Jerabek – LiveSquawk News

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