uk jobs data oct 17 - preview
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Tuesday, 14 November 2017


  • UK Oct jobless claimant count to rise by 2,300
  • UK Sept average earnings ex-bonus to rise by 2.2pct
  • Morgan Stanley sees future data to fuel May 2018 rate hike


The UK jobless claimant count is expected to have nudged up in October, when data for the past two months is released on Wednesday 15 November at 0930 GMT.


According to a Reuters poll of economists, claims for unemployment benefit are expected to have risen 2,300 versus 1,700 in September. Another closely-watched figure from the release will be October’s claimant count rate. There is no forecast for this one but in September it was 2.3pct.


Some data for September is also released, notably earnings data. Average weekly earnings in the three months to September, including bonuses, are seen rising by 2.1pct y/y – that indicates a slowing from the three months to August when it was 2.2pct.


Conversely, average earnings in September, excluding bonuses, are seen rising by 2.2pct versus a slower rate of 2.1pct in August.


The unemployment rate, using ILO standards, is seen steady in September at 4.3pct.


The September Employment change in the three months to September versus the previous three months is seen at 52,000 versus 94,000 in the three months to August.

Could jobs force BoE to raise the ceiling on policy rates in 2018?
Could jobs force BoE to raise the ceiling on policy rates in 2018?

“We expect the September labour market picture to look similar to August. We do, however, expect slower employment growth. There was slowing visible in last August's single month figures and recent surveys suggest some (modest) slowing in employment intentions/recruitment billings.,” said Morgan Stanley in a note.


“The evolution of labour market data remains key to the outlook for interest rates in our view. A slightly lower unemployment rate and higher pay growth would be consistent with more tightening. A slightly higher unemployment rate and relatively flat pay growth would be consistent with them remaining on hold,” the US bank added.


Morgan Stanley said it reckons that we will see higher pay growth coupled with little change in the jobless rate over the next two quarters.


“That, we think, will lead the MPC to raise rates again in May 2018.”


George Matlock – LiveSquawk News

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